Why so many upsets?

It's called March Madness for a reason, people.  But even so...how is it that a #1 seed needs a questionable call late to clinch a victory? How is it that a #2 seed that the nation thought was deserving of a #1 loses to a team in their NCAA Tournament debut? That was the first 15-2 upset in 11 years, and it happened against a team that 7% of ESPN brackets had winning the whole thing! How is it that, less than three hours later, another #2 seed, this time the prestigious program of Duke, falls victim to a team formerly known as the "Engineers?" And, don't forget, last year we had a #8 seed and #12 seed in the Final Four. How can this possibly happen!?!? To me, there are two very obvious factors which have led to fewer "locks" in picking tournament games and more upsets each year.


Let's start with the obvious first. The tournament is now larger, featuring 68 instead of 64 teams. A few years ago, the four worst auto-bid teams that made the dance all played in the essentially meaningless games against the 1-seeds. However, now, with the "first four games" now a part of the system, those four teams only take up two of the 1-seed matchups. This means that the former 15 seeds (like this year's UNC-Asheville) are now 16's, and former 14-seeds now are 15-seeds, and so on. We wouldn't be so surprised if Lehigh or Norfolk State finished off their opponents as 14-seeds, but as soon as it is a 2-15 matchup it's a completely different story. The addition of three more at-large teams has forced the hand into putting better auto-bid teams into higher-numbered seeds. The result: many more close games and two upsets that had only happened four times in history before this year.

Now, for reason number two, something that may get overlooked. Why has the mid-major thrived over the past couple of years? How does Butler make a title game run two years in a row with no superstar players, very little height, and a nothing-special resume? How does a team, that all of the experts say has no right being in the tournament, go from play-in game to final four? How do talented teams like Duke with players like Austin Rivers, Seth Curry, and the Plumlee brothers fall to a team that 99% of America couldn't even tell you the school's colors or mascot nevertheless their best player.

The answer is quite simple: experience.

I know what you're thinking... "Now wait a minute, how is Duke less experienced than Lehigh? How can Norfolk State in their first ever tournament be more experienced than Missouri?" This experience cannot be measured in program history. It is measured in GROUP experience - that is, the amount of time a team has spent TOGETHER as a team.

In the current era where "one and done" players dominate college basketball, big name programs go for the top athletes in hope that they can get one great title-run year with this superstar in their program. Teams like Kentucky reap these benefits, bringing in great players year after year. However, those great PLAYERS have never led to great TEAMS come tournament time. And they cannot hang onto those players for four years, as they only came to Kentucky for the year because the NBA requires it. If all of the Wildcats' players had stayed for their full eligibility, they would have not only Anthony Davis and Doron Lamb running the show in Kentucky, but also names like John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins would be in the starting lineup. Can you imagine?

Teams like Butler and VCU (and Lehigh and Norfolk State) are different, though. They cannot generate the big name interest like the Kentucky Caliparis. They instead recruit the second-tier players who often get overlooked. They then mold those players over the course of four or five years. After that much time in the program, being with the same players for half of a decade, a certain team chemistry forms that you just don't see in the big programs any more. Sometimes it is just the molding of an individual that can make the difference. Look at Norfolk State's Kyle O'Quinn, a 6'10" forward from New York. He was offered one scholarship. ONE! Nobody noticed this kid? No, because he didn't make the flash and impression like an Anthony Davis. Instead, he gets a shot at Norfolk State, works hard and gets better, works with the team around him, and the result is 26 pts and 14 rebounds in arguably the biggest upset in the history of the NCAA Tournament.

The "one and done" rule has completely changed college basketball as we know it. The big schools are going after the big names and getting them for one year. As a result, they overlook the middle-of-the-road players. These kids go to midmajor schools who reap the benefits. They might be a little shorter, a little slower, a little less flashy. But, like the old saying goes, five hearts beats one talent (or something like that). Until more schools can keep their stars for the long haul, expect more midmajors (5-seed, 12-seed, 2-seed, whatever) to make Final Four runs, and expect to see more huge upsets in upcoming years. I'll even call a 16 seed victory (the first ever) in the next three years (that is, if Michigan State can hold on against Long Island tonight...)