Thursday, November 22, 2012

Week 12 Fantasy Football - Start/Sit/Sleeper



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Quarterback:

Start ‘em
Sit ‘em
Sleeper Pick
Value Man:
Tony Romo (vs. WAS) – He needs to show America that he can be called an “elite” quarterback. Facing the Redskins porous pass defense on Turkey Day sounds like just the way to make that happen!

Philip Rivers (vs. BAL) – The Ravens have such deceptive numbers. They give up the 8th most passing yards per game, but nobody has given up fewer TDs through the air. That, and I never trust Rivers.

Colin Kaepernick (at NO) – He played extraordinarily well against the league’s best defense. Not only that, he did not turn the ball over against the team averaging 3 takeaways per game. Now he goes to NO and is to start. If he is starting, he’s well worth a look!

The Saint:
Robert Griffin III (at DAL) – He’s coming off of a big week, and though the Dallas pass defense is at the top of the NFL, their LBs can’t keep up with the scrambling RGIII.

Philip Rivers (vs. BAL) – So unimpressive. It never seems to stop does it. And facing the Ravens…

Andrew Luck (vs. BUF) – We keep forgetting about Andrew Luck and I don’t know why. Facing a Buffalo defense allowing 2 TDs per game, tied for 7th most in the league.

Mad Scientist:
Andy Dalton (vs. OAK) – Dalton is getting the TDs week in and week out against all quality of defenses.

Matt Schaub (at DET) – Playing at Detroit on Thanksgiving is never easy, especially when the Lions have a top 10 pass defense!

Chad Henne (vs. TEN) – 30 points as a backup against a VERY GOOD Texans defense last week, and now he plays one of the league’s worst pass defenses.


Running Back:

Start ‘em
Sit ‘em
Sleeper Pick
Value Man:
Ronnie Hillman (at KC) – Other than Willis McGahee, Hillman is the only Bronco to have double-digit carries in a week. He’ll get the start against the KC defense allowing the 6th most points to opposing RBs.

Michael Turner (at TB) – He’s done. He had a 1.1 yards/carry average against the lowly Saints. His only value comes in goal line carries, where he got a score last week luckily for owners. There are many better, more consistent options out there. Unless your league is TD heavy, it’s safer to keep him on your bench.

Jacquizz Rodgers (at TB) – PPR monster, he’s going to continue to get increased touches. Especially facing the league’s worst pass defense, he could get 6 to 8 receptions this week. He won’t get goal line carries, though, and that’s a shame.

The Saint:
Marshawn Lynch (at MIA) – He’s much worse on the road, but I see him having a standard day for him. He’s a must-start.
Adrian Peterson (at CHI) – Chicago needs to have a HUGE bounce-back game after getting embarrassed by the 49ers last week. That doesn’t bode well for A.P.

Stevan Ridley (at NYJ) – Tough to call him a sleeper but think about it, he has such up-and-down performances that he’s usually a flex play at best and we forget about him. They’ll need to establish the run early against the Jets.

Mad Scientist:
Doug Martin (vs. ATL) – Atlanta gives up over 130 rushing yards per game, and the Bucs sure are making it a point to pound Martin the ball.

Mikel Leshoure (vs. HOU) – Jacksonville did well against Houston last week, but it was in the passing game, not the rush. Jalen Parmele had 24 carries for 80 yards, Chad Henne had 500 yards passing. If you’re playing Lions on Turkey Day, do it with the passing game.

Marcel Reece (at CIN) – The Bengals give up the 22nd most points to opposing RBs. Reece had 103 yards rushing and another 90 receiving last week as the starter. Those numbers will continue.


Wide Receiver:

Start ‘em
Sit ‘em
Sleeper Pick
Value Man:
Dez Bryant (vs. WAS) – He’s back. He’s coming off of a 120 yard performance with a TD, and now faces some of the league’s most underperforming corners.
Mike Wallace (at CLE)– I don’t trust the backup QB to get Wallace the ball enough, especially in a run-first, low-scoring game.

Denario Alexander (vs.  BAL) – He has averaged 6 catches for 115 yards and 1.5 TDs over the past two weeks. He might not get the TD against the Ravens, but the yards will certainly be available.

Julian Edelman (at NYJ) – Especially if you get special teams points, you MUST play him. He ran for 47 yards, caught 6 passes for 58 yards, returned a 64 yard punt for a TD, and had nearly 100 yards in kick return yards. Of all of those stats, though, the best one of all: he was on the field for 52 of New England’s 61 snaps last week. Wow.

The Saint:
Stevie Johnson (at IND) – He’s consistent, but consistently slacking. He’s getting 6-8 catches each week, though, and is a TD away from having a great game each week.

Wes Welker (at NYJ) – The Jets will take Welker out of the game, especially with Hernandez banged up and Gronkowski out. He’s losing time on the field, too, to a better athlete: Julian Edelman.

Vincent Jackson (vs.  ATL) – The Bucs are looking good right now and will need to throw early and often to stay ahead of the Falcons. Atlanta’s pass defense is decent, but Jackson is a flex play for sure with the way Freeman is throwing the ball.

Mad Scientist:
Michael Crabtree (at NO) – Colin Kaepernick threw it all around, including to Crabtree. Now facing the Saints poor secondary, Crabtree is a good WR2 pick this week.

DeSean Jackson (vs. CAR) – No Philly WR is worth playing at this stage.

Cecil Shorts, Justin Blackmon (vs. TEN) – Tennessee is a bottom five passing defense, and both Shorts and Blackmon had huge days with Henne throwing the ball last week.


Tight End:

Start ‘em
Sit ‘em
Sleeper Pick
Value Man:
Vernon Davis (at NO) – He nearly single-handedly caused me a loss last year against the league’s best defense. Now he’s facing the Saints terrible defense…do you remember what he did against NO in the playoffs last year?
Kyle Rudolph (vs. CHI) – You could think about Rudolph after what Vernon Davis did to CHI last week. However, remember that Rudolph is NOT Davis. Don’t fall into this trap.

Jermaine Gresham (vs. OAK) – Oakland is ranked 25th against opposing TEs and Gresham is becoming a favorite red zone target of the Red Rifle.

The Saint:
Jermaine Gresham (vs. OAK) – Oakland can’t stop the TE and Dalton is heating up.

Aaron Hernandez (at NYJ) – Banged up with no Gronkowski means the Jets can focus on him and shut him down quite easily.

Brandon Pettigrew (vs. HOU) – Consistent targets, needs to make the catches. At least four passes last week to Pettigrew were thrown behind him. Those completions and he’d have 100 yards.

Mad Scientist:
Brandon Myers (at CIN) – Regular starter now without any question. He’s getting the targets, more than any other TE in the NFL.

Heath Miller (at CLE) – Not a good matchup against Cleveland, and there’s a terrible QB situation right now.

Garrett Graham (at DET) – Second TE on Houston, he had 8 receptions for 88 yards and 2 TDs last week. They’re liking the two-TE set in Houston, so keep an eye on Graham and consider starting him if your TE position has had trouble lately.



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