Sunday, March 11, 2012

Selection Sunday - This weekend's games are irrelevant?

UPDATE: WITH ST. BONAVENTURE'S VICTORY OVER XAVIER, THE BUBBLE HAS SHRUNK BY ONE! ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT RANKINGS, THAT WOULD MEAN DREXEL NOW WOULD BE THE FIRST TEAM OUT!

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We have arrived to one of the greatest days in the sporting year: Selection Sunday. After a half-dozen games crowning conference champions, the Selection Committee makes their picks known to the world.

However, it was made public today that the 37 at-large teams had already been decided before the weekend even began!!! So what does today's slate of games truly mean then? That is still to be determined.



So if the field is supposedly already set, I guess it's time to make it known a few hours ahead of time isn't it? Consider this Dotson's challenge against "Joey Brackets" to see who predicts the field better.



Let's start with the locks per league:  (automatic bid indicated by CAPS)


A 10 2
temple saint louis


ACC 4
duke unc virginia florida st

AM EAST 1
VERMONT




ATL SUN 1
BELMONT




BIG 12 5
MISSOURI kansas iowa state baylor kansas st
BIG EAST 6
LOUISVILLE cinci gtown nd syracuse marq
BIG SKY 1
MONTANA




BIG SOUTH 1
UNC ASHE




BIG TEN 6
msu mich wisc osu ind purdue
BIG WEST 1
LONG BEACH




COLONIAL 1
VCU




CONF USA 1
MEMPHIS




GREAT WEST 0
 - - - - - - -




HORIZON 1
DETROIT




IVY LEAGUE 1
HARVARD




MAAC 1
LOYOLA




MAC 1
OHIO




MEAC 1
NORFOLK ST




MTN WEST 3
NEW MEXICO unlv sd state


MVC 2
CREIGHTON Wichita St


NEC 1
LONG ISLAND




OVC 1
MURRAY ST




PAC 12 1
COLORADO




PATRIOT 1
LEHIGH




SEC 4
florida kentucky vandy alabama

SOCON 1
DAVIDSON




SOUTHLAND 1
LAMAR




SUMMIT 1
SDAKTOA ST




sun belt 1
WESTERN KY




SWAC 1
MISS VALLEY




WAC 1
NEW MEX. ST




WCC 2
ST. MARY Gonzaga





That means that right now there are 56 spots taken, 12 left to be determined by bubble teams. If St. Bonaventure wins today in the A10 title game, that number will drop to 11 immediately. Some have Xavier in the field already (myself included) so they winning today does not affect the last 12 teams into the field (Xavier being one of them).

So let's take a look at the at-large teams who have a chance to make the field:

57. Southern Miss
58. Connecticut
59. South Florida
60. Texas
61. West Virginia
62. Colorado State
63. Mississippi State
64. Xavier
65. California
66. NC State
67. Northwestern
68. Drexel

69. Seton Hall
70. Iona
71. BYU
72. Miami
73. Mississippi
74. Washington
75. Arizona
76. Tennessee
77. St. Joseph's
78. Oregon
79. Valparaiso
80. Dayton

So by my calculations, Drexel is rooting for Xavier, otherwise their tournament spot is likely lost. Teams like NC State and Northwestern to me make the tournament based on the eye test. Drexel should as well. These teams LOOK LIKE tournament teams. They play good, close, solid basketball games. Joey Brackets has Seton Hall into the dance, where I see them not as a tournament team but as a group who has not won a meaningful game all year. Iona, Oregon, Miami, and Washington have too many flaws on their resume, while Tennessee lost too early to have any chance!

So, to finish everything up, let's take a look at the top four seeds in the dance:

#1 Seeds: Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina, Michigan State (with victory today) / Kansas
#2 Seeds: Michigan State (with loss today) / Kansas, Missouri, Ohio State, Marquette
#3 Seeds: Duke, Baylor, Michigan, Louisville
#4 Seeds: Georgetown, Wisconsin, Florida State, Indiana
#5 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Florida, Murray State, Notre Dame

Enjoy the fun of Selection Sunday everybody!

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