BCS - What to Watch for?

It’s Championship Weekend in college football! That means only one thing: Let the Bowl Controversy Starters (BCS) begin! In our latest version of “Rules of the Game” we break down the Bowl Championship Series, including how the teams are ranked and how the ten teams are chosen for the BCS bowl games. Then, we’ll look at the teams still in contention for a BCS bowl and make sure you know what to look for this weekend!

Step 1 – Determining the Top 2:

Let’s start with the obvious: The top two teams in the BCS Standings at the end of the year will play each other in the National Championship game (to be held this year in Miami). But how do we determine the top two? Well, it’s a three-part process, with each part providing exactly one-third of the formula to crowning a champion.

1.       USA Today Poll – Teams are ranked by the 61 members of the USA Today Polling committee. Each team ranked by a member is given an inverse point total…so if a team is ranked #1 they get 25 points, #2 gets 24 points, all the way to #25 receiving 1 point. The 61 rankings are then added up and a cumulative score (out of a possible 1525 points) is used to rank the teams. A teams score is then divided by the maximum 1525 possible to give a percentage for the BCS rankings.

2.       Harris Interactive Poll – Similar to the USA Today Poll, the teams are ranked by the 114 members of the Harris Committee (which comprises of former players, coaches, athletic directors, etc., nationwide).  The inverse scoring system is used again, and a team’s cumulative score is divided by the 2850 point maximum to give a percentage used for the BCS rankings.

3.       Computer Rankings – Six different computer rankings are used to determine the final portion of the BCS standings. Each of the ranking systems is unique, but factor in a strength of schedule component into their equation in one way or another. Of the six computer rankings that make up a team’s rankings, the top ranking and the bottom ranking are dropped. The remaining four rankings are divided by the maximum possible score (100, 25 for four first-place rankings) to give the final percentage in the BCS system.

The final BCS average (with a maximum score of 1.0000) is determined by taking the average of the three components. A perfect BCS average only occurs if a team receives all 61 first-place votes in the USA Today Poll, all 114 first-place votes in the Harris Poll, and is ranked #1 by at least five of the six computer ranking systems.

Step 2 – BCS Conference Champions:

The first round of automatic qualifiers comes next in the BCS process. Currently, six conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12, and SEC) are considered “BCS Conferences” and receive an automatic berth into a BCS Bowl. Other conferences are able to be added to this list based on their performances in the previous year’s season, but none have been added since the BCS began.

The Big East and Big 12 currently crown their champion based on regular season performance. The remaining four conferences all have a conference championship game whose winner will represent the conference in a BCS bowl. All conferences have as a part of their tie-breaking procedures (usually after head-to-head competition and common opponents) a component involving the BCS rankings.

Step 3 – Non-BCS Conferences Automatic Bid:

Conference USA, Mid-American Conference, Mountain West Conference, Sun Belt Conference, and Western Athletic Conference are all in that “just shy of BCS conference” range. They do not automatically produce a BCS automatic bid each year. However, almost every year one of these conferences gets a team into the BCS through an automatic bid.

If one of these conferences has its champion finish in the top 12 of the BCS rankings, then that team receives an automatic bid to a BCS bowl. ONLY ONE TEAM can receive this automatic bid. For example if the Conference USA champion is #10 and the MAC champion is #8, the MAC team gets the bid and the Conference USA team has to hope for an at-large bid (discussed later).

Finishing in the top 12 is rather difficult, especially the SEC is given five of the top ten teams on average. So, there is a second component to this rule. If one of these conferences has a champion in the top 16 of the BCS rankings AND they finish ranked above a champion of a BCS conference in the BCS standings, then that team receives the automatic bid. For example, the Sun Belt champion finishes 15th in the final BCS rankings, and the ACC champion is ranked 21st. Since the Sun Belt team is in the top 16 and is ranked higher than the automatic ACC qualifier, that team receives an automatic bid to a BCS game.

Step 4 – “The Notre Dame Rule”:

If Notre Dame (or any other independent school with no conference affiliation) finishes in the top 8 of the BCS rankings, then they receive an automatic bid to a BCS game.

Step 5 – #3 and #4 in BCS Rankings:

If a team from a BCS Conference who is NOT the conference champion finishes #3 in the final BCS rankings, then they receive an automatic bid to the BCS. However, this only is in effect if an at-large team from the same conference has not already been selected as the #1 or #2 team to compete in the national championship game (only two teams from a conference can participate in the BCS). For example, say Oregon finishes #3 in the BCS rankings but did not win their conference, they would have an automatic bid to the BCS. However, say Stanford is #2 in the BCS rankings and also did not win the conference. Then, Stanford goes to the national championship game, and Oregon goes to a non-BCS bowl.

Similarly, if the team ranked #4 in the BCS rankings is not a conference champion and another “at-large” team from their conference is not ranked #1, #2, or #3, then that team ranked #4 receives the automatic qualifier into the BCS.

Step 6 – At Large Teams:

If there are less than ten automatic qualifiers awarded BCS bids (through the first five steps), then the remaining slots are filled with “at-large” teams. These teams can come from any conference, BCS or not. The only stipulation is that a conference can only have two teams in a BCS game (there is one exception…say the SEC claims the #1 and #2 spots in the final BCS rankings, but neither is the conference champion. In that case, the conference would get all three teams – the champion and the two automatic bids from being #1 and #2 – into the BCS).

There are certain qualifications that a team must have in order to receive an at-large bid. First, a team can only be eligible if it won at least nine regular season games. Also, they must finish in the top 14 of the BCS standings. And finally, as stated before, they are not eligible if two other teams from the conference (one being the conference champion – automatic bid) have already been selected into the BCS.

It is very possible that, after selecting the 6+ automatic qualifiers and determining eligible at-large candidates, that a field of ten teams is still not possible. If this is the case, then the field is expanded. Instead of finding eligible teams in the top 14 of the BCS rankings, they search through the top 18 teams in the rankings. If there still are not enough teams, they keep expanding by groups of four until enough eligible teams present themselves.

Step 7 – Bowl Selection Process:

The five BCS bowls (National Championship, Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Orange Bowl, and Fiesta Bowl) each have contractually obligated teams to play in their games.

·         National Championship – #1 vs. #2

·         Rose Bowl – Big Ten Champion vs. Pac-12 Champion

·         Sugar Bowl – SEC Champion vs. At-Large

·         Orange Bowl – ACC Champion vs. At-Large

·         Fiesta Bowl – Big 12 Champion vs. At-Large

The National Championship game, naturally, gets first pick at teams (#1 and #2). If a bowl game loses a team it is contractually obligated to receive, then they get first dibs on replacing that team. For example, say #1 is the SEC champion and #2 is the Big Ten champion. The Sugar Bowl gets to select their replacement team for the SEC champion (this team must be in the field of ten BCS teams, cannot be #1 or #2, and cannot be contractually obligated to another bowl game). Then, the Rose Bowl gets next dibs to replace their Big Ten champion. Again, this team they select cannot be contractually obligated to go elsewhere. Many times, the replacement team selected comes from the same conference as the team #1 or #2. That way, for example, the Rose Bowl could still provide a Big Ten vs. Pac-12 game.

Once the National Championship teams and possible replacement teams have been selected, it is now time to select the remaining bowl games. The champions not in the top two of the BCS go to their contractually obligated bowls. That, in the end, will leave three at-large spots still open. Each year, the order of those three bowls changes. This year, the Fiesta Bowl has the first choice, followed by the Sugar Bowl, and lastly the Orange Bowl.

Step 8 – Adjustments?

We’ll never see it at home, but the possibility exists for adjustments to be made in the BCS games. The conferences (and Notre Dame) look at the bowl matchups and can edit the pairings if any of the following occur:

·         The same team plays in same bowl game for consecutive seasons (minus the contractually obligated bowls…for example, if USC were to play four straight years in the Rose Bowl as Pac-12 Champs then so be it)

·         Two teams played against each other in regular season and are paired in a bowl game

·         Two teams played against each other in a bowl game in last year

·         An alternative pairing would be more beneficial, having a greater or lesser appeal for college football fans (for example, if rivals like Pitt and West Virginia – who do not play annually any more – both made the BCS, odds are they would be matched up against each other because a great interest would be created, much more than any other matchup with those teams)

January, 2013

So there you have it. That’s how the BCS works and how we get those great ten matchups each January.

But how will that affect what we are to see in a month? According to the BCS website, 21 teams have a chance to make a BCS bowl game. These are teams that are in a conference championship game, have a chance at the conference championship, or are in position to possibly snag an at-large spot. These 21 teams are being talked about by the committee and are still in consideration for BCS participation.

 

By my count, though, only 17 teams have a legitimate shot to make it into the BCS.That's because the automatic qualifying teams are going to take up many of the possible at-large spots.

Let’s first look at the top 25 teams and sort out what we should expect to see:

Starting with the obvious: Notre Dame is easily in the top 8, so they are in the BCS. Their season is done and they’re #1 so they will be heading to Miami to play in the championship game.

#2 Alabama and #3 Georgia will play in the SEC Championship game this weekend. The winner will almost certainly be #2 and face Notre Dame in the title game. The loser likely will drop in the polls at least below #3. Jumping up to the #3 spot is most likely to be Florida. By Step 5 of the selection process, Florida should be an automatic “at-large” bid.

That means the Alabama/Georgia loser is most likely out of luck, since only two SEC schools can make the BCS. Similarly, #7 LSU, #9 Texas A&M, and #10 South Carolina are BCS-ineligible.

The Big East is a one-bid conference, seeing as no school is in the BCS top 25 right now. With Rutgers losing to Louisville last night, the two teams along with Syracuse and possibly Cincinnati (if they win over Connecticut this weekend) are tied at the top of the Big East. The tie-breaker will come down to BCS rankings, where Louisville is all but certain to rank highest.

The Big Ten will get one team into the BCS for sure: the winner of the #12 Nebraska vs. Wisconsin B1G Championship game. The loser will all but certainly drop out of the top 14 needed for an at-large bid. The next best B1G team is #19 Michigan, but at 8-4 they cannot receive an at-large. #22 Northwestern could, but they would need to jump eight spots on a bye week, extremely unlikely.

The ACC is a bit more confusing. #13 Florida State is expected to defeat Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship. The winner is in the BCS. If FSU loses, then they will plummet in the standings and have no chance at an at-large. Georgia Tech has no chance of an at large with a 6-6 record. #14 Clemson is considered to have a chance at an at-large and was listed as one of the 21 teams still listed, but there are too many teams ahead of them to give them a bid.

The Big 12 does not have a championship game, but has serious implications as to what happens in the BCS picture. After Baylor defeated Kansas State two weeks ago, the possibilities opened up a bit. #6 Kansas State wins the Fiesta Bowl bid with a win against TCU this weekend. #11 Oklahoma needs to beat #18 Texas and get a K-State loss to go to the Fiesta Bowl.  Texas is considered to have a chance if they beat Oklahoma, but too many at-large possibilities loom ahead of them.  For how strong the Big 12 is this year, it’s sadly a one-bid conference.

#5 Oregon did not make the Pac-12 Championship game. And it's a very tough result for the Ducks. They lost in OT to Stanford, their only loss of the year. Each team with one loss in conference means the head-to-head goes to the Cardinal. Thus Oregon is eliminated from Rose Bowl and national championship contention. However, the Ducks are likely to jump to #4 in the rankings after the SEC Championship loser, and thus take an at-large automatic bid. #8 Stanford will face #16 UCLA in a rematch of last week’s game (the Cardinal won).  The winner goes to the Rose Bowl, the loser out of the BCS. That is a tough draw, especially if UCLA wins because Stanford just demolished the Bruins on the road last week.

Tonight’s MAC Championship between #17 Kent State and #21 Northern Illinois could decide everything. Assuming Stanford defeats UCLA again, the Bruins would drop in the rankings. That means a Kent State victory will all but guarantee them moving up a spot in the BCS standings to the all-important #16 spot. With no Big East team in the top 25, that means the MAC champion will be BCS-bound as long as they finish in the top 16 of the BCS. Kent State will guarantee getting there with a win. Northern Illinois might be a bigger stretch having to jump five spots in the rankings, but it’s not unheard of, especially with an added strength of schedule boost from beating #17. I truly think the winner of this game will end in the top 16.

#20 Boise State will win their conference, but would need a Kent State loss and Northern Illinois not to jump them in order to have a chance at the BCS auto-bid. So there’s a chance, but doubtful.

So the teams are (by my projections):

1.       Alabama / Georgia  (SEC Champion – AQ)

2.       Nebraska / Wisconsin (B1G Champion – AQ)

3.       Stanford / UCLA   (Pac-12 Champion – AQ)

4.       Florida State / Georgia Tech (ACC Champion – AQ)

5.       Kansas State / Oklahoma  (Big 12 Regular Season Champion – AQ)

6.       Louisville / Rutgers  (Big East Regular Season Champion – AQ)

7.       Kent State / Northern Illinois (MAC Champion – AQ if in top 16)

8.       Notre Dame  (“Notre Dame Rule” BCS top 8 – AQ)

9.       Florida (BCS #3 At-Large – AQ)

10.   Oregon  (BCS #4 At-Large – AQ)

ZERO at-large bids appear to be happening here. That means teams like Oklahoma and Clemson are going to be sore out of luck.

I have a bit of a problem with this because there is zero room for error. Literally every "rule" in the BCS book is being used to make up the ten teams. If a second independent team became prominent enough to warrant the "Notre Dame rule" a second time, then an automatic qualifying team would be left out. But I still like it better than choosing random at-large teams, especially when the better teams are left out and worse teams with better TV ratings are inserted (Michigan vs. Michigan State last year). 

In a nutshell, any system you choose is flawed. But hopefully now at least you (partially) understand how the system works!

Bowl Projections:

National Championship - #1 Notre Dame vs. #2 Alabama

Rose Bowl – Nebraska vs. Stanford

Fiesta Bowl – Kansas State vs. Oregon

Sugar Bowl – Florida vs. Louisville

Orange Bowl – Florida State vs. Kent State

Enjoy the games, everybody!