Who's in? Who's out?

One week from now the field of 68 will be determined, the analysts will have decided what teams got screwed out of a bid, and half of the country will have filled out the first draft of their brackets. Over the past three months, Joe Lunardi and other bracketologists have been constantly updating their predictions for how the bracket will look. And each week as Lunardi updates his bracket, I begin to believe in his judgment less and less.

So, instead of just sitting here commenting and tweeting about his stupidity, and since I am still in school mode and can't sleep until 2 am, I figure it's about time I try this bracketology thing for myself. Trying to set up the brackets is too time-consuming for a college student, whether or not he's on his spring break. So I'll do what Lunardi should do, simply create an S-curve for some of the top ranks and just worry about who is in and who is out.

There are 31 automatic bids available, 37 at-large. The way I see it, 60 of those 68 spots have been locked up, and currently there are 24 teams battling for the final 8 spots in the tournament. These numbers can change in a hurry, however. For example, yesterday Indiana State received the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament by beating the Missouri State Bears in the championship game of the Missouri Valley Tournament. Missouri State was a bubble team that was expected to make the tournament as the MVC's automatic bid. Now they have to make the tournament as an at-large bid, and if the selection committee finds them a strong enough selection, Indiana State's victory may have made the number of spots available for bubble teams one less.  That being said, I have the Bears currently outside of the field of 68 at this time.

Let me first analyze the local schools having a shot at the dance.

Pittsburgh (27-4, 15-3) of course has locked up the outright Big East title and the #1 seed in the conference tournament. One win in the conference tournament and Pitt all but guarantees a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Duquesne (18-11,10-6) will be the #4 seed in the Atlantic-10 tournament. The top three in the conference (Xavier, Temple, and Richmond) all should make the dance, but unless they can win the conference tournament, I think it's NIT bound for the Dukies.

Robert Morris (18-13, 12-6) has finished like they were projected in the Northeast Conference by making it to the championship game. They play Long Island on Wednesday night. The winner will make the tournament, the loser will not.

Penn State (16-13, 9-9) just secured the #6 seed in the Big 10 tournament with a win today over Minnesota. They should win their first round game vs. Indiana and face Wisconsin, who the Nittany Lions have beaten once already this year, in the quarterfinals. Even if they lose to the Badgers, they would end up with a 17-14 overall record and a .500 record in the 2nd toughest conference in the country, including three victories over top 25 opponents and losses at Ohio State and at Purdue by a combined four points. With how weak the bubble is this year, I believe this is enough to get Penn State into the tournament with their top ten strength of schedule, especially with the team peaking at the right time, which is a fact bracketologists I don't think look at closely enough. However, if teams with no business making the tournament keep taking away bubble spots like Indiana State may have, Penn State might (and probably will) end up on the outside looking in again.

And now the moment we've been waiting for: the S-curve begins.

1. Ohio State (29-2)  - If Diebler keeps shooting 10-12 and 7-8 from three-point range, good luck beating the Buckeyes. However, if 3-bler goes cold in just one game it could spell the end for the Bucks.
1. Kansas (29-2) - Not many teams can match up with the Morris twins. They're a Final Four team.
1. Pittsburgh (27-4) - Final Four or bust for Pitt. Dixon needs to be able to adjust his game plan as the game goes on. That, and they need to hope not to get into a game with refs who call hand check fouls. After a tough Big East schedule where the teams play so physically, a bad combination with a team matchup and refs could be trouble for the Panthers.
1. Duke (27-4) - Their bad loss to UNC hurts the Dukies, but they'll perform in the ACC tourny and end up as a weak #1 seed. However, they always match up well in the NCAA tourny, and it's tough to pick against Coach K.

2. BYU (28-3) - It's the Jimmer Show now thanks to the BYU Honor Code. I think they miss out on a #1 seed due to the loss of Brandon Davies and their immediate loss to New Mexico afterward. I think we'll see what the Cougars are all about if/when they face San Diego State in the Mountain West title game.
2. San Diego State (29-2) - I don't think they should be a #2 seed since their only win vs. a top 25 team was against a #12 Gonzaga team beginning of the year, a Gonzaga team that now is nowhere near the tournament even. Their high-scoring offense may be just enough to get them to the Elite Eight or beyond. However, depending on their matchup, I can see them losing to a #15 seed. Nobody is safe beyond the one seeds.
2. Notre Dame (25-5) - 11-1 in their last 12 games speaks for itself. They can, and probably will, die by the three. If they shoot poorly in one game it's bye-bye Irish.
2. Texas (25-6) - The Longhorns just perform in the big games. They've struggled as of late, but I believe they improve when the postseason begins.

3. Purdue (25-6) - The Boilers were rolling before their inexplicable loss to Iowa. Johnson and Moore might be the best one-two combo in the NCAA.
3. Wisconsin (23-7) - I don't know what to think about the Badgers. Are they the team that beat the Buckeyes up north? Or are they the team that appeared to have no defense in their losses at Columbus and in Happy Valley? If they face an Ivy league 14-seed, watch out Badgers!
3. North Carolina (24-6) - Hottest team in the country, they haven't lost in over a month. They'll be playing for a while in March.
3. Syracuse (25-6) - Basketball is a game of runs. Syracuse is a team of runs. Won their first 18, lost six of their next eight, now end the year with five straight victories. The Jim Boeheim 2-3 defense is a huge advantage for the Orange in March, and they're always a tough draw.

4. Louisville (23-8) - They'll win at least one game as long as they keep Knowles from touching the ball late in the game...luckiest victory for the Mountaineers I can't believe that happened.
4. Florida (24-6) - A QUIET 24-6, the Gators have a style of play that bodes well for tournament play...but I need to see their matchup before advancing them anywhere in the tournament.
4. Arizona (25-6) - Watch for a 13-seed upset here.  The Wildcats will get a 4-seed because they'll win the Pac 10 tournament, and then they'll get embarrassed once the dance begins.
4. St. John's (20-10) - The selection committee gets a little too cute with the Red Storm due to their big wins. With only one quality win away from home and as many bad losses as good wins, I think this seeding is a gift. And since they seem to play to the level of their opponent, I again look for a high possibility of an upset here.

Here's a full rundown by conference of who is in the tournament no matter what in my mind (as at-large bids):
America East (1) - Vermont
Atlantic 10 (2) - Xavier, Temple
ACC (4) - Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia State
Big 12 (5) - Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State
Big East (11...wow) - Pitt, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Villanova, St. John's, Louisville, Syracuse, West Virginia, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Marquette
Big Ten (4) - Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois
Colonial (2) - George Mason, Old Dominion
Horizon (1) - Butler
MAAC (1) - Fairfield
Mountain West (3) - BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
Pac 10 (3) - Arizona, UCLA, Washington
Patriot (1) - Bucknell
SEC (4) - Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee
West Coast (1) - St. Mary's
WAC (1) - Utah State
Single Bid Conferences (16) - Belmont (Atlantic Sun), UNC Asheville (Big South), Indiana State (Missouri Valley), Moorehead State (Ohio Valley), Big Sky, Big West, Conf USA, Ivy League, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit, Sun Belt

And the last eight who will get at large bids are...

61. Alabama (20-10) - #80 in the RPI hurts, as does a #125 SOS, but finishing second in the SEC will get them in.
62. Michigan State (17-13) - Tom Izzo gets the Spartans in the tournament because he is Tom Izzo. And guess what, I'm not picking against him in an opening round March Madness game no matter who they play. Just interesting that a 14-loss team is pretty much guaranteed to make the tournament due to Izzo's Spartans.
63. Georgia (20-10) - Same record as Alabama and just as many big wins: one vs. Kentucky. Top 40 RPI gets them in, especially if the voters like the Tide.
64. Richmond (24-7) - With a couple good outside shooters they're a solid team. I think they need to make it to the A-10 tournament finals to ensure their birth in the NCAA tournament.
65. UAB (22-7) - This is assuming that they do NOT win the Conference USA tournament, which I have UTEP winning. Top 30 RPI and top 80 SOS will get them in.
66. Penn State (16-13) - You knew it was coming. Three victories vs. top 25 teams and two "victories" at OSU and Purdue get them in the dance. State plays well against better opponents, and when there will be a bunch of weak four, five, and six seeds, Penn State is a team that nobody will want to see in their bracket.
67. Clemson (20-10) - Beating Virginia Tech puts Clemson in for now...Between Clemson, VT, and BC, it all depends on how things go down in the ACC tournament. No way will all three make it, and it's possible none will.
68. Michigan (19-12) - I honestly don't like this pick, but nobody can stop talking about the Wolverines. The voters put them in the last four. So here's my reasons why I don't think they deserve it: 0-7 vs. top 25 opponents. No big wins. A solid strength of schedule and decent record, but again, nothing spectacular.

First Four Out:
69. Boston College (19-11) - Only two games vs. top 25 teams, both losses. I honestly look at their schedule and can't see how this team deserves a spot.
70. Ivy Runner-up - Princeton (23-6) and Harvard (23-5) will most likely play in a one-game playoff (if Princeton beats Penn on Tuesday) to see who represents the Ivy League in the tournament. SOS is an issue for both teams, but both look good in the RPI with Harvard (35) having an edge over Princeton (51). The best bet of both teams making it is if Princeton beats Harvard in the championship.
71. Colorado (19-12) - They have three big wins vs. top 25 teams (Texas, K-State, Missouri), but a #76 RPI ranking and a #71 SOS hurts the Buffaloes here...
72. Wichita State (24-8) - The Shockers...shocking...loss to Indiana State keeps them out of the dance.  Their #58 RPI ranking gives them a shot, but their SOS is 108...ouch.

Others who still have a shot:  VCU, Colorado State, Baylor, UW Milwaukee, Nebraska, Coastal Carolina, UTEP, Washington State, Missouri State, Gonzaga, Southern Miss, Duquesne.


Well there you have it. Unlike other bracketologists who don't want to be critiqued, I ask you all to PLEASE give feedback on this field, and give your own opinions to what the road to the final four will look like. The best comments will be featured as always in our next podcast. We plan on giving a final prediction to what the brackets will look like, and then once the brackets are announced we intend to give you a run-through of what our brackets look like.

Speaking of which, KEEP YOUR EYES OPEN here in the next couple of days for the 360 SPORTS NETWORK BRACKET CHALLENGE. Show everybody that you know college hoops the best! More details to come shortly!  And now, I bid you a good night, and enjoy Championship Week!