Saturday, January 21, 2012

Championship Sunday

We are less than 24 hours away from the start of Championship Sunday in the NFL.

The New England Patriots try to return to the big game for the first time since their unbeaten season was stopped just short. They host the Baltimore Ravens, who are under the direction of QB Joe Flacco who has been criticized numerous times for his troubles on the field. They kick off at 3:00 pm EST.

The NFC Championship will kick off approximately at 6:30 pm EST in rainy San Francisco. First-year head coach Jim Harbaugh will lead the 49ers as they host the red-hot New York Giants. Eli Manning has been unconscious lately, especially in his connection with WR Hakeem Nicks.

We will break down both matchups in six categories: Quarterbacks, Running Back vs. Linebackers,  Receivers vs. Defensive Backs, Trenches, Special Teams, and Coach. Using these breakdowns, we will predict the teams that will travel to Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis.



AFC: Baltimore at New England

Quarterbacks: This one is a no-brainer. Tom Brady is a two-time Super Bowl MVP and coming off a payoff record-tying 6 TD passes last week against Denver. Joe Flacco has been criticized by everybody in the country, including his own teammates. Flacco has had zero success in big games in his career. His record is still very strong (four road wins in the playoffs, tied for most by a QB in a career), but that's because he can manage a game well. He'll need points to keep up with Brady. Advantage: New England.

RB vs. LB: Ray Rice is a dynamic running back. What more can you say? Even his backup of Ricky Williams is better than any of the RB options in Foxboro. The Law Firm of BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a goalline back at best, Danny Woodhead is a modern day Kevin Faulk but lacks durability, and Stevan Ridley is a decent change of pace back for two or three carries. As for linebackers, the Ravens have Ray Lewis. The Patriots...don't.  Advantage: Baltimore.

Receivers vs. D-Backs: Ed Reed has unbelievable numbers in the postseason...8 INTs in 10 playoff games. But who is he going to cover? Gronkowski? Branch? Hernandez? Lardarius Webb is a Pro Bowl-caliber D-back, but his size will most certainly limit him to covering slot superstar Wes Welker. Reed can't cover the rest of Brady's options. Just too many of them. The biggest threat against the NE defense is Torrey Smith going deep. They contained Demaryius Thomas last week from going deep. They know better than to let Smith go deep. Advantage: New England.

Trenches: I think the injury concerns on New England's O-line might cause some troubles for Tom Brady. Haloti Ngata and Cory Redding might have meetings at the quarterback all night! The Baltimore O-line always allows running room for Ray Rice. Advantage: Baltimore.

Special Teams: Gostkowski and Edelman vs. Cundiff and Webb. Advantage: New England.

Coach: Three Super Bowl rings or none? Advantage: Belichick  Advantage: New England.

Final Thoughts: Just keep in mind that New England has only won two games this year against teams with winning records: Denver, twice. Denver finished 9-9, and their only win against a team with a winning record was an injury-decimated Steelers squad. Even so, it's still Brady and Belichick, and it's still a hapless Flacco. For Baltimore to win this game, Ray Rice needs at least 30 touches. He'll be lucky to get 20.  New England 30-20.



NFC: New York Giants at San Francisco

Quarterbacks: Eli Manning is the hottest QB in the league. And no I don't mean his looks...He has great receivers in Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham. He hasn't played a top 10 top defense since before the bye week. The best he's faced was Washington's 12th ranked pass defense. Result? Ugly loss. Alex Smith has done everything right. He has made all of the right throws in all the right situations. He even runs the ball now! This west coast offense has be perfect for him.  Advantage: San Francisco.

RB vs. LB: Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter will take on a LB corp that has been injury stricken and ever-changing all year. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs have to take on Navorro Bowman and Patrick Willis.   Advantage: San Francisco.

Receivers vs. D-Backs: This one is pretty obvious. Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis are special players, but they cannot match the production of Nicks, Cruz, and Manningham. Carlos Rogers can't cover them all! The New York secondary smothered all of Aaron Rodgers' targets last week, which it's pretty safe to say that they are stronger performers than the 49ers have. Advantage: New York.

Trenches: Jason Pierre-Paul is the difference maker in this game. If he can get pressure on Alex Smith, then the game is all for New York. If Joe Staley, Mike Iupati, and Anthony Davis can contain JPP and company, then the Giants might have to blitz more than they want. Alex Smith has a 96.75 rating against the blitz (3rd in the country). Harbaugh isn't afraid to keep Delainey Walker in to block. Advantage: San Francisco.

Special Teams: David Akers and Andy Lee rival the cross-bay Raiders' tandem of Janikowski and Lechler.  Lawrence Tynes is inconsistent at kicker and have no return threat. Bottom line: if the clock is winding down, I want Akers, not Tynes. Advantage: San Francisco.

Coach: A rookie coach or a Super Bowl winning coach?  Advantage: San Francisco. That's right, Tom Coughlin is a joke in my book. He should have been fired the year that they won the Super Bowl. His team won enough games at just the right time and his job was saved. They've been terrible since. He should be fired again. But his team is all of a sudden getting good again at the same time. Coughlin is not a good coach. Harbaugh has turned a team around without making any personnel changes. Vernon Davis went from scapegoat to superhero. Alex Smith went from potential benchwarmer to possible Super Bowl QB. Harbaugh is the real deal.

Final Thoughts: Don't forget that the weather is supposed to be less than ideal in San Fran tomorrow. The running game will be vital as a result. If nothing else matters, remember who has the better O-line and running game.   San Francisco 23-21.

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