The Tebow Effect

As the fantasy football season, and in unison, the NFL season, winds down, trends are what fantasy owners look for. While we, as fantasy football owners, view certain players as 'hands off', Tim Tebow(QB - Denver Broncos - 67.0% owned) is slowly becoming a more and more viable pickup our sprint into the fantasy football playoffs. Yes, you read it, and yes, I just, unfortunately, said it.

Tim Tebow is a quarterback who has done something most running backs won't. He is also something other quarterbacks will not touch. That is to put up fantasy football numbers for constantly getting yardage on the ground, and the potential for touchdowns.

Last year, Tim Tebow was a guaranteed touchdown every week he started, and even before, in weeks 6, 8 and 10, he still rushed for a touchdown, without throwing for one. As a starter, he threw for a touchdown, while rushing for another in each of weeks 15, 16 and 17.

This year, things have changed a bit. Instead of being thrown into the starting role halfway through the season, Tim Tebow was thrown into the role during the week 5 matchup with the San Diego Chargers. Once again, he rushed for a touchdown. He has also only had that single touchdown for fantasy football owners and have relied mostly on yardage on the ground for his non-quarterback fantasy point totals.

Let's look at some stats to see if any trends appear..

Opponent	PassYDS	TD / INT	RushYDS	TD
SDG	79	1 / 0	38	1
@MIA	161	2 / 0	59	0
DET	172	1 / 1	63	0
OAK	124	2 / 0	118	0

First of all, we can see that his rushing stats, and by extension, his fantasy football numbers, have gone up as each week has went on. Next, we can see that finding the end-zone through his passing game is the only way this quarterback is likely to make touchdowns this NFL year.

After looking at the rest of the roster, a few other things start to slowly jump out. First, Willis McGahee (RB - Denver Broncos - 95.8% owned) is gaining a lot of yardage, and many fantasy points when he is playing healthy. This past week, against Oakland, McGahee and Tebow combined for 281 yards rushing against the number 29th rushing defense in the NFL. They will be facing the 18th, 21st and 17th rushing defense overall during the next three weeks at Kansas City Chiefs, hosting the New York Jets and at the San Diego Chargers. The week 12 rematch versus the Chargers should also make for the ground game of the Denver Broncos one to watch, both with regard to a healthy Willis McGahee and Tim Tebow.

While I have been down on Tim Tebow, his fantasy points are consistent, while low, in most of his starting weeks. If this trend in this fantasy football season continues, he should be a welcome quarterback and player to any team that needs quarterback help, or a spot to fill during bye weeks and / or injury. For keeper league players, look for the Denver Broncos to make some fantasy owners happy by placing Tebow into the starting role and continuing to give him more wide receiver and tight end support.

And this is what I call 'The Tebow Effect' in fantasy football. It's simple...find a player who is undervalued, find a trend of potential in him and be truthful with yourself about what he is or isn't doing.

Later all