Riding the Pine

Halfway through this fantasy football season, a newer owner in fantasy football starts to worry, starts to see injuries as those NFL bye weeks and bad trades in your league mount up...potentially. Veteran owners, however, know that the season is not won in the draft. Sure, it gives you a template of how you can grab the wins, it gives you your anchors and your stars, but throughout the season, the waiver wire is the make it or break it area of fantasy football season.

So, how do you make these picks?

Well, first, if there is a trend, you'll see it, and you should jump on it. Currently, a big trending player is Brent Celek (TE - Philadelphia Eagles - 10.8% owned). In the last two weeks, he has averaged a TD and 60 yards over a combined 11 receptions. Trends are how you find your personnel.

Speaking of trends, don't limit yourself to player stats, but as a team trend. Jon Baldwin (WR - Kansas City Chiefs - 7.6% owned) is playing on an increasingly more offensive Chiefs team. Playing versus Miami, Denver and the Patriots over the next 3 weeks should yield an average of 7-11 points per week.

Tarvaris Jackson (QB - Seattle Seahawks - 2.4% owned) won't have an easy time over the next two weeks at the Dallas Cowboys and then hosting the Baltimore Ravens. However, in the final 7 weeks of the season, they face an average of 24th in passing defenses, 230+ yards and 11 passing touchdowns given up.

What other factors are there in finding waiver wire picks?

How about injury? No injury has been more prevalent than that of Peyton Manning (QB - Indianapolis Colts - 10% owned). Curtis Painter (QB - Indianapolis Colts - 4.0% owned), however, will not be getting the job done. In the last 6 weeks of games, only one team is in the bottom half of the league in pass defense at New England in week 13.

In contrast, Jackie Battle (RB - Kansas City Chiefs - 65% owned) seems to be stepping up more and more. His yardage totals were spiked versus a bad Indy defense, but he is still going to be seeing more and more short yardage grabs. As this offense gets more stable, his points will be as well, versus good, great and sad rushing defenses - expect an average of 7-12 points per week over the next 6 weeks.

Donald Brown (RB- Indianapolis Colts - 1.8% owned) is splitting carries with Delone Carter while Joseph Addai is unhealthy. If this continues and Painter's play, does, as I suspect, slip as the weeks go on, Brown will not get you 15 points per week, but can average 5-10 depending on the week, and will be a positive fill-in for your bye weeks.

How about increased offensive points via injury-mitosis? That's what you will see in Arrelius Benn (WR - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 1.5% owned). While his consistency on the field leaves something to be desired, a 16.5 YPC is nothing to sneeze at. If he gets more looks, especially against a New Orleans offense that might force this NFL game into an offensive, and specifically, passing / receiving shoot-out, he might have sleeper written all over him.

Okay, so what else should I look out for?

Well, also look at waiver wire spots versus defenses on a per week basis with their own trends. How about this one...did you know Philadelphia allows 5.0yds per carry this whole year? How about the Baltimore Ravens have only given up 2 touchdowns to tight ends this whole year? One more stat to keep you on your thinking toes....Green Bay's passing defense has given all, ALL, ALL starting #1 wide receivers at least 80 yards receiving or a TD this year in every...single...game.

Other players I would look at, especially for this week and the next few are Jason Avant (WR- Philadelphia Eagles - 4.6% owned), Chris Ogbannaya (RB - Cleveland Browns - 2.3% owned) and Lance Moore (WR - New Orleans Saints - 68.9% owned) are all players deserving of looks. Ones to sit and stay away from? How about every player on the Denver Broncos? This means you Mr. Tebow!

I hope you enjoyed my first article for 360 Sports Network, and I look forward to a fun end to this season, as well as providing more cerebral spattle for your fantasy football needs!

Take care!