Thursday, November 17, 2011

Hot Games in Fantasy Football - Week 11

It's fantasy football. Your league is about to enter it's playoffs, or maybe your fantasy football league is winding down it's regular season and you needs points, NOW!

Well, I'm here to help you out. Whether you have a tough choice with Matt Schaub's season ending early, you are split between dumping AJ Green or starting him, or you are getting over the NFL's problem with Tim Tebow, we're gonna help your fantasy team right now, and get started with an in-depth review of both of Thursday Night Football's contenders.

NJ Jets @ Denver

In this Thursday night game, two young quarterbacks bash heads with different outlooks to the end of their season in their sites. Mark Sanchez (QB - New York Jets - 82.0% owned) comes off of a decent fantasy performance versus the New England Patriots, one of the worst passing defenses in the league this year. His numbers last week, 20 of 39 for 306 yards, two touchdowns (one rushing) and 2 interceptions, were decent fantasy wise, this was fueled by a game in which the Jets played from behind a lot more often than with the lead. This week, facing off against The Denver Broncos defense will give Sanchez head-aches.

Mark Sanchez will be seeing the likes of Champ Bailey (CB - Denver Broncos). While Champ was gone weeks 2-4, Denver's passing defense was given up a little over 333 yards per game. Since this cornerback's return? The NFL has not seen a better 217 yards given up in the passing game.

For Denver, Tim Tebow (QB - Denver Broncos - 80% owned), looks to make more gains as a 'real NFL quarterback', after head coach Fox's remarks concerning his quarterback during a NFL Network interview. Tim Tebow will not go nuts to throw the ball this week either, however, his points from his ground attack and the heavy use of the QB option. Inconsistency is also Tebow's mistress, heavy 6 horrid passes, on two bad drives, and then finding money with, what I feel, could be seen as the pass of the week.

Willis McGahee (RB - Denver Broncos - 99% owned) will likely see play time, however, in this NFL contest, fantasy owners might be cringing with the idea of only15 or so carries. Backing up McGahee is Lance Ball (RB - Denver Broncos - 5.7% owned), who the Broncos are not afraid to use, giving him 30 carries for almost 100 yards last week. In my mind, picking up Ball might do nothing more than block another owner's attempts at points, so pick him up at your own discretion; same deal with starting McGahee on your fantasy football team. On the ground for the Jets, Shonn Greene (RB - New York Jets - 100%) will be sharing the backfield with, well, nearly no one as LaDainian Tomlinson (RB - New York Jets - 70% owned) will not be playing. Denver's passing defense is tight, so look for Greene's 18 carry average this season to become 25+ and he break 100+ yards in this one.

In the air, the Jets will like own this game, if that's what you can call it. I don't see any wide receivers breaking 100, and you might, might, MIGHT see a caught touchdown in there somewhere, but I wouldn't hold my breathe here people.

Oakland Raiders @ Minnesota Vikings

I like Bush...Michael Bush (RB - Oakland Raiders - 100% owned) is about as much on fire as Paris Hilton's toilet seat...*waits for laughter*...what? In all seriousness, if you are a fantasy football owner and have not grabbed a fantasy player off your league's waiver wire from the Raiders, or have tried to trade for one, there is something wrong with you. And he will be running against a running defense that is started to look Swiss-cheese-esque, giving up 117 yards average over their last four games.

And in the air, the days of Jamarcus Russell are gone. There is a new sheriff in town, and his name is Carson Palmer (QB - Oakland Raiders - 38% owned). Hey, if he is available, pick him up. Big Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Michael Vick, Matt Cassel and Matt Schaub, four quarterbacks in the top ten, or out with injury or bye weeks, so grab some money in fantasy football while you can.

And, about this waiver wire find and grab, reach out there for Denarius Moore (WR - Oakland Raiders - 66% owned). He is officially Carson Palmer's primary, and with games like week 11 @ Minnesota and week 13 @ the Dolphins, he should find yardage and touchdowns, along with more and more Raiders wins.

For Minnesota, I have a tough time telling you to not play Adrian Peterson (RB - Minnesota Vikings - 100% owned). He will be facing, in the Raiders, a team which gives up the fourth most fantasy football points to opposing running backs this year, and got their NFL butts kicked by a one-armed leprechaun of a running back against Willis McGahee.

Minnesota has got to start playing Percy Harvin (WR - Minnesota Vikings - 92% owned) more than they have. Over the last two games, though, he has been targeted in each in the end zone, along with over 15 looks by Christian Ponder (QB - Minnesota Vikings - 10% owned) in the last three. This could be a developing trend, and versus Oakland, we will see if his increased catching opportunities will equate to happier fantasy football owners.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

Reggie Bush (RB - Miami Dolphins - 100% owned), whether you like him or not, whether you followed his off-the-field loves or not (lucky son-of-a-b$*#&), over the last 3 games, Bush has 313 total yards and the three scores. That is an average of about 16 fantasy football points per game. Guesses and intuition are one things, but a trend is a trend.

Versus the Bills...mmm...he looks damn good. Now he faces a Buffalo Bills team that is not capable of playing run defense, entering this week giving up 125 yards and a little over 1 touchdown per game. The Bills have also allowed 52 points to opposing running backs in their last two games. One last tidbit...the Bills have given up at least 25 points in three of their last four contests versus opposing running backs.

Matt Moore (QB - Miami Dolphins - 2.8% owned) might also be slowly finding some starting roles materialize on fantasy teams if his NFL performances keep panning out. Yes, last week was a down week, but against a suspect Bills' defense, you might see some end zone dances this week. Comparably, Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB - Buffalo Bills - 87.6% owned) is sliding. Owners are dumping him, and benching him more often on their fantasy teams, and if this trend continues, he might wish he was playing the quarterback role for the Dolphins.

So, what about the rest? Simple...bench two defenses playing in the bottom half of both the run and pass. Start wide receivers and running backs on your fantasy team. And if you want him, Matt Moore, on the back of a great win and big points this week is going to potentially give him, might be an intelligent pickup today.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens

A.J. Green (WR - Cincinnati Bengals - 100%) has had either 80 yards or a touchdown in EVERY game this NFL season. That is sweet, sweet music to his fantasy football owners, but there needs to be caution here. He is tweaked, and might be limited. Especially considering Baltimore is not a slacking defense. I wouldn't play Andy Dalton (QB - Cincinnati Bengals - 25% owned) this week due to Green's injury, and if a healthy Green isn't available, a healthy fantasy football output for Dalton is not in your league's future.

Joe Flacco (QB - Baltimore Ravens - 90% owned) just isn't getting it done, and last week versus Seattle proved it. Cincinnati is about 100% better, more co-ordinated and are able to shut down the pass. Which leads to me saying what I will next; Ray Rice (RB - Baltimore Ravens - 100% owned) is about a solid of a play as you will see. He keep pumping out solid numbers, and as far as last week went, it was almost as if the Ravens forgot about him and just kept bashing their heads against the wall with the pass; it won't happen this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns

Really? Really...?

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins

What flew up the Cowboys butt last week? Maybe a little bit of Tony Romo (QB - Dallas Cowboys - 100% owned). Look at his trend over the last few weeks and you see why. And last week versus Buffalo, he went 23 out of 26 attempts. What does that all mean? Well fantasy football numbers, my dear. And they should most likely continue this week, as Romo finds redemption to his poor week 3 fantasy football point output.

By extension, Laurent Robinson (WR - Dallas Cowboys - 28% owned) is looking to be a deep, late-year sleeper. Don't let the #3 wide receiver status get you, he plays behind Dez Bryant, but is performing like a #2, so that will most definitely change. Also, Jason Whitten (TE - Dallas Cowboys - 100% owned) is a solid play, getting 60 yards in week 3, with Romo not playing at his peak.

On the other side of the ball, who knows what the heck is going at running back with this bane of fantasy owners that is the NFL's Washington Redskins. Ryan Torain (RB - Washington Redskins - 67% owned), Roy Helu (RB - Washington Redskins - 46% owned) and Tashard Choice (RB - Washington Redskins - 1.5% owned) all, when healthy could be the #1 running back each week. It's not even a two-headed giant, and as such, the Redskins get no fantasy football love from me...sit them all.

Tampa Bay @ Green Bay

Okay, so let's get this out of the way...start Aaron Rodgers (QB - Green Bay Packers - 100%). I know, I know...he is a sleeper. I know, he really doesn't get any points. Ya....

Greg Jennings (WR - Green Bay Packers - 100% owned) might be Rodger's #1 target, but, Jordy Nelson (WR - Green Bay Packers - 100% owned) is streaking with 3 touchdowns in the last three games. Wow...this is too easy.

Over to Tampa Bay and for the jokes to end (or to start if you are tired of the joke of the Freeman-Williams connection that isn't). I would like to see Josh Freeman (QB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 86% owned) play to his potential. But unless there is a running game developing, meaning you Mr. LeGarrette Blount (RB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 100% owned), Mike Williams (WR - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 84% owned) and Arrelious Benn (WR - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 1.3% owned) will do nothing more than hope for the ball, and make fantasy football owners do nothing more than punch small farm animals in anger.

Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions

So much potential, so much failure. This game has star quarterbacks, mediocre defenses and possible breakout wide receivers and running backs in this game.

First off, Cam Newton (QB - Carolina Panthers - 100% owned) has had his bubble burst. However, every path to goodness has a few bumps, and I think he bounces back from last week and his 200 yards, interception and 50+ yards on the ground. By the way, like Denver's Tebow, rushing yardage and scores are in Newton's future, with him averaging a little over 50 yards per game on the ground.

I also like the running games in this match-up. Johnathan Stewart (RB - Carolina Panthers - 100% owned) has grabbed 2 touchdown runs in the short yardage game, stealing them from Newton's zero. On the opposite side of the ball, grab Maurice Morris (RB - Detroit Lions - 25% owned) while you can, for this one week if none other as he replaced Jahvid Best (RB - Detroit Lions - 98% owned) for the last couple of weeks. Detroit will not see a more poor rushing defense this whole year, so Morris will be money this week.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

Where do you start with this match-up? John Skelton (QB - Arizona Cardinals - 0.8% owned) looks like he is becoming more and more of a 'money' player. While Alex Smith (QB - San Francisco 49ers - 21% owned) has slid into a low-output groove of only one touchdown per week. On the ground, Beanie Wells (RB - Arizona Cardinals - 100% owned) has seen his numbers slide over the last few weeks, and will see them almost disappear versus one of the stingiest defenses in the NFL. While, for the 49ers, Frank Gore (RB - San Francisco 49ers - 100% owned) is injured and his status is unknown until game-time. Possible money could come in the form of Kendall Hunter (RB - San Francisco 49ers - 16% owned) if Gore is down this week.

I also like Vernon Davis (TE - San Francisco 49ers - 98% owned) in the next two to three weeks, especially with Gore fighting injury, and lesser carries. However, Early Doucet (WR - Arizona Cardinals - 19% owned) could also pay off some serious dividends as your fantasy football year winds down. He has 3 touchdowns in the last four games, but not a whole ton of yardage to go with it...so pick him up at your own fantasy caution.

Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams

Marshawn Lynch...that's all I gotta say...BEAST!

San Diego Chargers @ Chicago Bears

The Bears defense is alive and well, and the Chargers' offense is like, well, no analogies...they are just sad. But in that, we find a few things. First, healthier running backs as the weeks go on. So, does that mean that Ryan Mathews (RB - San Diego Chargers - 100% owned) and Mike Tolbert (RB - San Diego Chargers - 100% owned) should be finding starting running back roles on their fantasy football teams? Probably not this week, that's for sure.

Next, Vincent Brown (WR - San Diego Chargers - 1.2% owned) is really solid in his time catching in place of Malcolm Floyd (WR - San Diego Chargers - 64% owned). Is it enough to keep him there? Maybe not for fantasy owners, only this week and possibly the next will tell.

For the Bears, Jay Cutler (QB - Chicago Bears - 78% owned) has been up and down this year. What do you hope for as a Cutler owner? It's easy, close games. Once the game is in hand, and the Chicago defense kicks in, the Bears go on offensive cruise-control and the Matt Forte (RB - Chicago Bears - 100% owned) show. However, versus a team in the Chargers that have only given up an average of 200 yards total, you might see Forte only be a half-back literally; only playing the first half of this NFL battle.

Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons

Start your stars, bench your gambles...simple fantasy football game as far as being a fantasy owner goes. However, with that being said, with the lack of some of the best in starting quarterbacks this week, Matt Hasselbeck (QB - Tennessee Titans - 54% owned) might be a viable fill-in from the waiver wire. If he keeps performing with a naughty Chris Johnson (RB - Tennessee Titans - 100% owned) and a hodge-podge of receivers in Nate Washington (WR - Tennessee Titans - 84% owned) and Damian Williams (WR - Tennessee Titans - 3% owned), looks for Hasselbeck to also be a late playoffs thought by fantasy football owners as a start at times, most times, if playing two quarterbacks, he could become a starter.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

I just said it today, Eli Manning (QB - New York Giants - 100% owned) was probably the most under-rated, under-valued quarterbacks in fantasy football league drafts this year. However, factor in Victor Cruz (WR - New York Giants - 98% owned), Mario Manningham (WR - New York Giants - 99% owned) and Hakeem Nicks (WR - New York Giants - 100% owned) and Manning owners are smiling with a handful of wins. The running back game seems to be in flux at times, so be wary...as if you didn't know.

For the Eagles, I cannot say this enough, loudly, nor violently stop you now...do not, no matter how tempted you are, no matter how much money your fantasy football league is playing for, or even if your skinny ass gets double-dogged dared, do not pickup up Vincent Young (QB - Philadelphia Eagles - 2% owned) for your fantasy football needs...that is all.

Seriously, starting players are not starting, and this guy, is, without question, too much of a head case. Team in flux + head case at quarterback = NOT A CHANCE IN HELL!

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots

Dwayne Bowe's (WR - Kansas City Chiefs - 100% owned) and Johnathan Baldwin's (WR - Kansas City Chiefs - 6% owned) possible future fantasy numbers just flew out the window. In this game, your big players will be, again, without question, Tom Brady (QB - New England Patriots - 100% owned) and Rob Gronkowski (TE - New England Patriots - 100% owned). I would also recommend New England's defense in this game, as piss-poor as they are, you 'could' see some numbers here with Matt Cassel (QB - Kansas City Chiefs - 60% owned) out for the season with a hand injury requiring surgery.

That it for the 360 Sports Network preview of Week 11 in the Fantasy Football and the NFL season. Hopefully, I'm talking to you as you enter your playoff weeks. If not? Still having problems? email us with your questions, comments and concerns at 360sportsnetwork@gmail.com.

Thanks all and good luck this week with your fantasy, and fantastical, performances!

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