March Madness Comes Early This Year

We’re just about a month away from the most exciting time of the year: March Madness!

But guess what people…the madness has already been here for a while now. The only thing in college basketball that has been certain is uncertainty itself. Every game (except maybe ones with record-low scoring Northern Illinois) features two teams that can easily come out on top by the end of the night. No team can stay at the top of the rankings. New teams are taking over the reins while perennial some perennial powerhouses are slipping away. 

And that’s just why this sport is so amazing!

But what does that mean for us, the fan? Is this a good thing to see this much of a diversion from the norm in college hoops? And how do we fill out our oh so important brackets for the tournament?

In the past week alone, five teams in the top ten have lost six games (#1 Duke to Miami, #3 Syracuse to Villanova, #5 Louisville to Villanova and Georgetown, #6 Arizona to UCLA, and #9 Butler to La Salle).

Other than UCLA’s defeat of Arizona, all of those losses came to the road team. Home-court advantage is becoming more and more prevalent each year. In conference play, anybody can win a game at home. Penn State, winless in the B1G, almost pulled out home victories against Michigan State and Ohio State this year.

Louisville has now lost three straight games. Their star, Peyton Siva, has gone dramatically downhill. He had two points in their loss to then-#5 Syracuse last week. He was held scoreless against Georgetown (yet still took the final shot against the Hoyas). Teams are figuring out how to take out some of the top performers for a team (Deshaun Thomas for Ohio State, Peyton Siva for Louisville, Nerlens Noel for Kentucky…etc.) and now teams have to find secondary scorers. Ohio State and Louisville are really struggling to do so. Kentucky, though unranked, at least is finding a relatively balanced offense and thus are still a threat in March.

How about some of the midmajor teams? Gonzaga vs. Butler drew College Gameday last week! And in true Hoosier fashion at Hinkle Fieldhouse, Butler hit a buzzer beater to win it for the Bulldogs. Coincidentally, it was in the same spot where Bobby Plump (immortalized by Jimmy Chitwood in the movie) hit the game winner for Milan (Hickory). Both teams were ranked in the top ten last week (Butler’s loss will surely drop them out of that distinction).

But how is this possible? Actually, it’s quite easy. Because of the big schools looking more for the superstar players in recruiting, the potential “one-and-done” players, smaller schools have to take a different angle. They look for players to develop over four or five years. Because of that, they don’t get many of the “ESPNU 150” blue chip prospects. They get names like Kelly Olynyk (Gonzaga), Doug McDermott (Creighton), and Matthew Dellavedova (St. Mary’s).

They also get some bigger names as well though. Some players WANT to play with the same guys for four years, not get a new class of freshman one-and-dones each year. David Stockton (yes, John Stockton’s son) runs the offense for Gonzaga. He and Olynyk, both juniors, have developed a chemistry that you just can’t create when you literally have a brand new team each season. It’s because of that chemistry and team comradery that you have five mid-majors (#9 Butler, #10 Gonzaga, #17 Creighton, #19 VCU, #20 Wichita State) in the top 25 right now. They will all be forces in March.

Speaking of March Madness, how can we possibly fill out our brackets this year when there is no clear-cut top of the line team? Each time a team reaches the top five, it seems like they are destined to fall.

My answer is simple: look at history.

History says that a few teams are always great in March while some always fluster. For example, Michigan State and Tom Izzo are always a threat to make it to the Final Four. No matter what seed they end up getting in the tournament, they’re worth consideration to advance. Duke, though ranked #1 last week, is one to be cautious of picking. They always seem to struggle in the tournament, and they just haven’t shown enough prowess this year to warrant me picking them to win it all.

History says that balanced teams go far. Indiana? Yes. If Zeller has a bad game, they have the outside presence to make up for it. Michigan? No. They have no big game to fall back upon if their outside shooting struggles.

Midmajors? Recent history says you should definitely consider taking them far. Butler twice to the championship game, VCU to the final four, George Mason back in the day, Norfolk State and Lehigh winning as 15-seeds last year…don’t be afraid of advancing a team far in the tournament due to their lack of a “big name” in the basketball world. The fact that most of their teams are senior (or at least junior) laden means that they can respond to adversity much better. In March, that’s usually the difference between victory and defeat.

Survive and advance. Right now teams in college hoops cannot do that. But maybe that’s a good thing. We have exciting games and never know what to expect! That’s fine by me! That just means we have a lot to learn in the next few weeks leading up to Selection Sunday.