To (Sp)Read, or Not to (Sp)Read?

With the success of the option attack this season in the NFL (see San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington for starters), many people believe that this will indeed be the new offense of many teams over the next few years. Some believe that organizations are looking more for that style of play now (see the hiring of Chip Kelly from Oregon’s spread system) and within a few years we could see the option offense as the commonplace.

Others believe that this is just not feasible; that there is too much attrition on the running quarterback for the attack to work long term. For proof there, see Robert Griffin III tearing his knee up in the regular season and not being able to run (or throw) in the playoffs. Pocket passers are much more protected, so they will stay healthier for a longer period of time. Thus, teams will stay with a passing attack.

I disagree. I think that the spread, option attack will become the standard offense in the NFL. While some teams will likely still remain with their pocket passers, most will take their chances with the “gimmicky” offense.

There are very few Peyton Manning or Tom Brady –esque quarterbacks coming out of the big college programs right now. At least two-thirds of D1 schools are running some sort of spread offense, many with the option component with a mobile QB. Those players then come up to the NFL either at another position (Antwaan Randle El, Eric Crouch, or even Denard Robinson this year) or are perennial backups at best (Tim Tebow) because they cannot handle an “NFL” offense.

But look at Tim Tebow. He took a stagnant offense, changed it up a bit with the option attack, and all of a sudden the team is a playoff winner!

Why did teams like Oregon adopt the spread offense? Because it levels the playing field. You don’t need to have the dominant skill position player or QB to run that offense successfully. Your offensive line can be severely overmatched, but in the zone read, you block one less player, making it easier to execute blocking the other ten defenders.

The same thing goes in the NFL. Alfred Morris (a sixth round draft pick) ran for 200 yards against the Cowboys in a do-or-die week 17 game. The threat of RGIII keeping the ball (even with his injured leg) made it difficult to defend the zone read. The Redskins did not block Demarcus Ware the entire game! Get that – the Redskins did not block the best player on the opposing team’s defense in that game. They made him choose: Griffin or Morris.  Talk about leveling the playing field, they told their line “hey, don’t worry about Ware. He’s the best out there, but we’ll let him go. Focus on the other guys.” And it worked.

The NFL is a bunch of copy-cat coaches. When one team tries something, all of a sudden you see everybody give it a try.

The Steelers put Ben Roethlisberger in the pistol formation when he was a bit banged up a couple years ago. It was just a little wrinkle, but enough to throw off the defense. Now you see it as the base formation for the Redskins and 49ers.

The Dolphins ran six plays from the Wildcat formation in an absolute dominating performance against the Patriots in 2008. Five touchdowns resulted on those six plays, including a TD pass thrown by Ronnie Brown. That started a huge trend as nearly every team in the NFL experimented at some point that season with the wildcat formation.

Now, many will then claim that the wildcat has died back out in that time, and so will the spread option offense as well. I disagree. The wildcat died out because nobody had a good enough player to have a threat of passing the ball. The “wildcat” became just the old single-wing and the defense put ten men in the box when the saw the QB wasn’t behind center. With the spread offense, every play is a wildcat formation WITH the threat of pass. The Dolphins, since their initial game using the wildcat, have averaged under three yards per carry from the formation because of the lack of a pass threat. Kaepernick and the 49ers this year? 5.9 yards per carry. You do the math.

If you have to defend the zone read, you need to prepare for it. Thus, you need to have a practice squad who can run it, meaning you’ll have a mobile QB on your practice squad. If you have one on your practice squad, he’s a backup, and he needs to know your offense as well. So why not just put the package into your offense? If your pocket passing starter gets hurt, would you put your option backup in and run the same plays? No way!

Because the practice squad guys will be running a spread offense, and your defense will be seeing a lot of it anyway, I see many teams making the switch altogether. It’s what the players know and it levels the playing field for an offense that is seemingly overmatched.

Now yes, some teams (Broncos with Manning, Patriots with Brady, Falcons with Ryan…) will not immediately jump ship from their successful passing quarterbacks.

When you ask people who they would choose if given the option of any QB in the past two NFL Drafts, they would say Andrew Luck. Why? Because he’s the “prototypical” QB out there – the pocket passer. He’ll last longer they say.  I’ll agree with that. However, look at other positions in the NFL. WRs are done by their early 30s, RBs are lucky to make it to 30. QBs are still chucking the ball around at 40. So maybe a running QB can only last until he’s in his early 30s. So what? Why should the QB position be any different than a RB? Why can’t you even consider having two QBs and rotating them through the game (like you do your running backs) to keep them fresh and limit the chance of injury?

I saw a high school championship game this year where, on a six play touchdown drive, six different people took the snap from center and ran the same wildcat-esque blast play up the middle each time. The defense knew what was coming, but couldn’t stop it. If the same player took the snap each time, he would have worn out of gas eventually. But it was different each time, a fresh player each time. Now, should the NFL get to that level? Absolutely not! But why can’t we rotate in a QB once in a while like we do at all of the other positions?

NFL teams and coaches will follow what other teams and coaches do. If they see something that works, they will find their own way to do it as well. The 49ers changed offenses and QBs half way through the season and now are in the Super Bowl as a result.  Fads sweep like wildfire in the National Football League.

…I just hope I don’t see the Phil Dawson onside kick from the Pro Bowl spreading like wildfire…