Contender or Pretender?

Only three weeks separate us from Selection Sunday, and with that the debates begin of who will make the big run to the Final Four. Who are the contenders and who are the pretenders? Let the debate begin! Agree or disagree? Let your voice be heard!


There is still lots to be learned in the last two weeks of the regular season and the conference tournaments. We will analyze each conference in the near future as the tournament field begins to fill! Stay tuned to 3SN for the latest college hoops updates! Now, for who we can count on and who we cannot:



#1 Kentucky - CONTENDER - One loss on a buzzer beater at Indiana this year. Nobody is playing better than the Calipari Crew right now. A shut down defense and a diverse offense will make UK a tough out in the tournament.

#2 Syracuse - PRETENDER - Yes, this may come as a shock to say a one-loss team from the Big East is a pretender, but I'm willing to do it. They lost to Notre Dame, should have lost at home to West Virginia, and has needed extra time to win their last couple of conference games. Boeheim's team just doesn't look in sync lately, and it will show come tournament time. They're the type of team that could get a tough early matchup against an outside-shooting mid-major, and that 2-3 zone is then obsolete.

#3 Missouri - CONTENDER - 80 points per game, they can score with anybody. Their two losses came on the road against K-State and OK-State, two teams that play scrappy ball. Here's the deal: The Tigers shoot over 50% from the field. That's a recipe for success. They'll be in the tournament for a few weekends.

#4 Kansas - CONTENDER - Keep an eye on the matchup vs. Mizzou next week. That might tell us which of these two teams is the real contender. If Missouri sweeps the season series, then I might have to say watch for an earlier-than-anticipated exit for Kansas. They find a way to win in March, though, so they are a contender for now.

#5 Duke - PRETENDER - Yes the beat #5 UNC at Chapel Hill. But they did it with a buzzer beater. I look at their horrible loss to Ohio State, and even more I look at their losses at Cameron Indoor against Florida State and Miami as the reasons why Duke is a pretender. If you can't win at home, Cameron Indoor of all places, against these teams, then I cannot take you far in the tournament. They rely too much on the outside shot (Duke normally does) this year, and they just are not shooting it well.

#6 Ohio State - PRETENDER - The Buckeyes have scored points galore this year...until the last week. Jared Sullinger isn't getting fouls called every time he touches the ball anymore and that's hurting their ability to put points on the board. Averaging over 75 points per game, OSU only put up 48 against the Spartans and 51 against the Wolverines. Inconsistency hurts, and teams now know what to do to cause problems for the Buckeyes.

#7 Michigan State - CONTENDER - Two words: Tom Izzo. Five Final Four appearances since 1999 tells you all you need to know about the Spartans chances. Keith Appling and Draymond Green run the show for MSU, but watch out for a freshman Branden Dawson to make some noise down the stretch.  High scoring or low, Izzo's bunch finds a way to "survive and advance."

#8 North Carolina - CONTENDER - Really not much to say about the Tar Heels. Three of their last four games are on the road, including the finale at Duke. If they lose two of those four, move UNC to the pretender category.

#9 Baylor - PRETENDER - Until yesterday, Baylor's four losses were against Missouri and Kansas. At first it seemed like they just couldn't win against the top teams. Now they lost to K-State in a game where they just looked terrible from start to finish. You cannot trust Baylor to go far the way they are playing right now.

#10 GTown - PRETENDER - The Hoyas rank 123rd in points per game. Their advantage is their height, but they rank 81st in the country in rebounds per game. Numbers never lie. They always are in danger of a first (now "second") round upset because a small, scrappy team can easily counteract the big men of GTown. I don't see that being any different this year.

#11 UNLV / #13 San Diego State - PRETENDERS - Neither of these two Mountain West teams will do anything. UNLV has lost three of their last four games, their only win coming against SD State, who now has lost three straight. They're declining at the wrong time, and neither has a single, big-name player who can take over a game if needed. Honestly, the true contender out of the conference would be New Mexico, who is playing the best right now.

#12 Marqette - CONTENDER - I'm normally not a Marquette fan come tournament time, but the way they are playing this year is just a little different for some reason. They're spreading the ball around and are staying under the radar. If they make a decent run in the Big East Tournament they can end up with a 3-seed and possibly have a smooth road to the elite eight or beyond! Johnson-Odom is playing too well right now to ignore Marquette.

#16 Murray State - CONTENDER - We can't forget to mention the one-loss team who lasted the longest before losing the goose egg. Isaiah Canaan could become the newest household name if he keeps playing like he is right now. Steph Curry who? Depending on the Racers' matchups, they could make a strong run in the dance. They will probably only end up as a #5 or #6 though, so it is going to be tough for them to get it done. But stranger things have happened, especially in recent memory! Don't count out the Racers.