Monday, May 21, 2012

The Field of 33

Ladies and gentlemen, we have our field of 33 for the 96th Running of the Indianapolis 500-Mile Race!

And ohhhhhhhhh what a race it should be! (And no, not just because Race Day forecast calls for 91 degrees...I made sure to get a base tan/burn yesterday!)

If race day is anything like the excitement of Pole Day and the craziness of practice all month, then we should expect some fast, action-packed racing from start to finish. I mean, let's look just at the first two positions. The difference between pole position (Ryan Briscoe) and second place (James Hinchcliffe) is .003 mph over a four lap average. That's .0023 seconds over ten miles. Can it truly get any closer?

Let's quickly look at a couple of big stories for Race Day before breaking down each driver individually, analyzing the odds for each driver to drink the milk at the famed Brickyard.


RUNNING IN TRAFFIC
The DW12 chassis has already shown greatness when it comes to running in traffic. Speeds in the tow have been nearly four to five mph faster than for a car on its own (remember to ignore pole speeds due to the extra 10 kPa boost). Cars are able to use the tow effectively, get a good run, and make the pass consistently and often.

HONDA VS. CHEVY
Ryan Briscoe (Chevy - Team Penske) won $100,000 for qualifying
on pole for the 2012 Indianapolis 500.
...vs. Lotus too, but we might as well forget the two Lotus cars (sorry Simona). Chevy had nine of the top ten qualifiers. Further, Honda has shown difficulty with rev limits, especially when riding in traffic. They can catch up to a leading Chevy car but cannot quite make the pass...or at least cannot make the pass with the ease that a Chevy car can make following a Honda machine. Honda's best hope is to have figured out fuel mileage to level that playing field, because finding positions on the track will not come easy.

TEAMWORK
This is actually my biggest storyline. Andretti Autosport cars start 2-3-4. Team Penske starts 1-5-6. KV Racing (thanks to waived "attempts" by Kanaan and Viso in the fast nine) starts 8-9-10. Chip Ganassi Racing starts 12-14-15-16. Teammates will be starting near each other and able to start working that draft well. AA especially has shown success in practice running in traffic together. I expect race day to see packs of teammates joining up quickly and moving through the field...whether that movement is backwards or forwards will be dependent on race day setups.

INDIVIDUAL BREAKDOWN (Coming soon!)
So now is the time to go through the field and discuss each driver and his/her chances to win the Indianapolis 500! The odds listed are the odds I would give at this point for each driver to win. And these are real odds, not odds based solely upon previous victories at Indy (Franchitti, Dixon, and Castroneves are 1-2-3 when it comes to the "true" odds according to Vegas...what a joke. Sorry boys).

Full individual breakdowns for each racer will be given in tomorrow's Month of May special. Sorry for the delay, I'm posting daily while moving a family member.



Row 1

Ryan Briscoe - 7:1                        James Hinchcliffe - 5:1              Ryan Hunter-Reay - 15:1
 
Row 2

Marco Andretti - 10:1                  Will Power - 12:1                       Helio Castroneves - 10:1


Row 3


Josef Newgarden - 50:1                  Tony Kanaan - 15:1                    E.J. Viso - 70:1

Row 4

Rubens Barrichello - 40:1                 Alex Tagliani - 50:1                       Graham Rahal - 20:1 


Row5

Ana Beatriz - 80:1                             Charlie Kimball - 60:1                  Scott Dixon - 25:1 


Row 6

Dario Franchitti - 25:1                    James Jakes - 90:1                        J.R. Hildebrand - 45:1 


Row 7

Takuma Sato - 45:1                         Townsend Bell - 80:1                    Justin Wilson - 90:1 


Row 8

Michel Jourdain - 100:1                 Simon Pagenaud - 90:1              Sebastian Saavedra - 80:1 


Row 9

Sebastien Bourdais - 60:1                 Wade Cunningham - 120:1                  Oriol Servia - 60:1 


Row 10



 Ed Carpenter - 150:1                       Mike Conway - 120:1                   Katherine Legge - 500:1

Row 11

Bryan Clauson - 180:1            Simona de Silvestro - 100000:1              Jean Alesi - First Born:1

2 comments:

  1. Your initial odds are a bit silly: Hinch is not the favourite ( little oval experience, only 2nd 500 ). How on earth can he be 5:1 and Hunter Ray next door in the exact same team car is 15:1? A proven winner, including ovals.

    When it shakes out Marco and Helio will be cofavourites based on the way they run this track over the past few years. A good long shot pick would be Bourdais

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  2. Hunter-reay hasn't had success at Indy which is why I'm not too high on him. Hinch has had a near flawless month. These are how I personally would rank them in terms of who I think can win. I personally see Hinch with a much better chance than RHR. I agree though, RHR is a great top five or six driver to pick. And I also agree, I wouldn't choose anybody starting in the back half of the field more than Bourdais. The team scares me is all, especially with little seat time. Ideally his odds would be better. Thank you do much for commenting!!! Check back tomorrow for full driver details.

    ReplyDelete

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