Pole Day - Preview and Predictions

"Aaaaaaaaaaaaannddddddd heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee's  ON IT!"

Welcome to Pole Day at Indianapolis, ladies and gentlemen. Today is the fastest day in motorsports as drivers attempt to qualify for the Indianapolis 500, the Greatest Spectacle in Racing. We will surely be hearing those words of the late Tom Carnegie, While there will be no new track records set today and no milestones hit by the drivers, we can still expect an action-packed, drama-filled day at the Brickyard.

We will break down the long day at the track today for you, give you a little preview of what to expect, and of course give you our predictions for who makes the field, who makes up the "fast nine" spots, and who gets the $100,000 and the distinction of running on pole for the Indy 500.

4 laps, 10 miles, 100,000 dollars, ONE chance at glory.


PREVIEW

Pole Day starts bright and early for drivers and teams, with a morning practice session to shake down the car one last time before qualifying. By 10:30 AM, cars begin lining up in the qualification line (order determined from a random drawing on Friday night), and at 11:00 AM, the track officially opens for qualification.

The qualification procedure for the Indianapolis 500 is unlike any other in the world. For any other race in the IndyCar Series, and in fact for just about every other form of racing series out there, cars qualify based on the speed of a single lap. At Indy, though, it's not good enough to just put up one good lap. Consistency + Speed is necessary to succeed at the famed Brickyard. To qualify for the 500, a driver must successfully complete four consecutive laps (10 miles). That four-lap average speed is what determines a car's spot on the starting grid.

Helio Castroneves has four career pole positions at
the Indianapolis 500. Don't be surprised if he makes
another run for the top of the scoring pylon.

On pole day, the top 22 spots in the 33-car field will be set. Qualifying will proceed until 22 cars fill the field. From there, any further qualifying will result in cars being "bumped" from the field. If the 23rd qualifier of the day posts a speed fast enough to make the top 22, then that car enters the grid and the slowest car is bumped out of the field.

Each car gets three attempts on Pole Day (and three more attempts on Bump Day on Sunday if necessary) to qualify. If a team is unhappy with a posted speed, they can withdraw the earlier speed and attempt to re-qualify (whether to bump their way back into the top 22, or to try to make their way into the "fast nine").

When 4:00 PM arrives, cars 10-22 get locked into their starting spots. Cars 1-9 are locked into the Indy 500 field as well, but with order still to be determined. Those "Fast Nine" will go for the pole in a shootout. Their earlier qualifying times are wiped out, and they must qualify again. Each of the "Fast Nine" are guaranteed one more qualifying attempt (and given an extra set of tires to do so) from 4:30-6:00. As long as time permits, cars may attempt to withdraw and re-qualify as many times as they want during this session. The speed order from the "Fast Nine" determines the front three rows for the Indy 500, and when the gun sounds at 6:00, the fastest qualifier from this group gets the distinction of being a polesitter for the Greatest Spectacle in Racing.

PREDICTIONS

After yesterday's Fast Friday practice, where cars first got the chance to see their speed with the added boost from the Honda/Chevy/Lotus turbocharged engines, my predictions certainly have changed. Andretti Autosport is showing dominance on the speed charts (not only while in traffic in early practice sessions, but also yesterday with the extra 10 kPa boost). At one point, four AA cars occupied the top four spots on the speed charts! They are certainly the team to beat today. However, you can never count out the Ganassi boys, and CERTAINLY cannot count out Team Penske and four-time polesitter Helio Castroneves!

Image Courtesy of IndyCar.com

Pole speed last year was 227.4 mph for Alex Tagliani (then of Sam Schmidt Motorsports). So far, the fastest time seen with the added boost and no draft has been 226.2 mph from Marco Andretti. He did reach 227.540 mph with a huge tow, but the speed of 226 seems reasonable for tomorrow. My predicted pole speed: 226.021 mph.  It'll be hot tomorrow, so a bit slower than today's speeds.

So after the benefit of Fast Friday, my starting grid predictions are now as follows: 

Row 1:   Marco Andretti               James Hinchcliffe             Helio Castroneves (W)

Row 2:   Ryan Hunter-Reay          Josef Newgarden (R)       J.R. Hildebrand

Row 3:   Scott Dixon (W)             Ryan Briscoe                   Tony Kanaan

Row 4:   Will Power                     Dario Franchitti (W)         Ana Beatriz

Row 5:   Ed Carpenter                 Takuma Sato                    Oriol Servia

Row 6:   E.J. Viso                        Graham Rahal                   Charlie Kimball

Row 7:   Alex Tagliani                   Bryan Clauson (R)            Rubens Barrichello (R)

Row 8:   James Jakes (R)         |   Sebastian Saavedra           Justin Wilson

Row 9:   Simon Pagenaud (R)      Mike Conway                   Wade Cunningham (R)

Row 10: Townsend Bell               Sebastien Bourdais            Michel Jourdain

Row 11: Katherine Legge (R)      Simona de Silvestro           Jean Alesi (R)     

*Note: the | between Jakes and Saavedra signifies the cutoff from Pole Day qualifying to Bump Day qualifying. Only 22 cars will qualify on Saturday's Pole Day, with the remaining 11 qualifiers having to wait until Sunday's Bump Day qualifying to get into the field.  Bumping will occur from 22 to 23 on Pole Day, from 33 to 34 (if needed) on Bump Day.