Friday, May 18, 2012

Fast Friday - Preview and Predictions

Ladies and gentlemen, start your engines for what is sure to be one of the most exciting qualification weekends in the history of the Indianapolis 500.

Fast Friday has been a tradition at the Brickyard as long as there has been pole day qualifications. It is the last day of practice before qualifications for the Indy 500 on Saturday. Today's practice session is nicknamed "Fast Friday" because, with all cars in qualifying setup, speeds are higher than ever.




Today, cars will be super fast just because cars will be doing simulated qualification runs. For the Indy 500, it's not about getting one quick lap to qualify. It's about consistency over four laps. The four lap average is what is used to determine the starting lineup for the 500-Mile Race. Since cars only need to be out there for four laps of qualifying, speed takes precedence over longevity of the machine. Fuel loads are at the minimum, just enough to make it through a qualifying run, so the car is as light as possible. The cars do not have to be "comfortable" for a driver, as they are not driving 500 miles. They only need to be able to "hold on" for 10 miles, meaning much less downforce and much more understeer. It's all about speed and hanging on just long enough to see the checkered flag.

Today, cars will be running those setups with limited fuel, less downforce, and all around shakier conditions for maximum speed.

However, today's new regulations will put a whole new definition to "Fast Friday."


PREVIEW

During qualifying weekend (Fast Friday, Pole Day on Saturday, and Bump Day on Sunday), the Honda, Chevy, and Lotus turbocharged engines will be given extra boost. The engines will now have 140 kPa of boost instead of the normal 130 kPa (Don't ask me exactly what that means or how much pressure that truly is, it's been too long since I've taken physics). The end result is about 40 to 50 extra horsepower (I know that one!), and an expected increase of anywhere from 2 to 5 mph in speed.

THIS IS ONLY FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AT THE SPEEDWAY! RACE DAY BOOSTS ARE BACK TO THE NORMAL 130 kPa.

The top speed of the month so far is courtesy of Marco Andretti, who posted a 223.676 mph lap on Tuesday. So, technically, we could see a pole speed close to 229 mph right?

Wrong.

Andretti's lap, along with just about every lap above the 218-219 mph mark, was with the assistance of the draft. Andretti got a HUGE tow from his teammates in front of him, allowing his speed to drastically increase. In reality, the top single-lap speed in practice so far without the assistance of a tow (that I've seen at least) came from either Josef Newgarden or James Hinchcliffe, each just shy of the 219 mph mark. So more likely, the pole speed could reach around 224 at the most (in my opinion).

But that's just it: this is only MY opinion. We really don't know how much faster cars will go this weekend with the added boost. It could be only 2 mph, or they could go closer to 10 mph faster. Drivers have only today and a quick warm-up session tomorrow morning to figure out all that they can with their cars being more powerful. Even if the car is now capable of going 230, that doesn't mean drivers will be able to get there by the time they need to get into the qualifying line.

All of the drivers have said that all data they have gathered so far is thrown out of the window for qualifying. Teams have been preparing on race setup all week knowing that Fast Friday brings the extra boost only available during qualifying. So, that means 33 cars will be on the track today for the six-hour practice session looking to find the best qualifying setup.

Good luck.

During qualifying, cars run the four laps BY THEMSELVES. There is nobody else on the track to use to your advantage of a tow. That's why we throw Andretti's 223+ mph speed out the window when it comes to qualifying. But here's the rub: 33 cars need to practice qualifying today with a brand new setup that nobody has ever seen. That means track time is at a premium. How can somebody get a mock qualifying run in today when 32 other cars are pressing for track time as well? It will be nearly IMPOSSIBLE to simulate a full run because it will be nearly IMPOSSIBLE to find an empty track today.

Things could get dicey in a hurry. Especially with how big of a hole these DW12 cars make in the air, finding "clean air" to practice is going to be tough. And with the cars trimmed out as much as possible already for qualifying, one patch of dirty air could easily be enough to send car/driver/suped-up engine into the wall. It will be an entertaining day!


PREDICTIONS

Well, I guess I need to give some predictions based on what I've seen so far. Again, do not trust the speeds you see being thrown out there today, as some will be with the aid of the draft. The Andretti Autosport cars, for example, have been strong all month, but mostly because the five of them have run race-sim laps together and get a tow off of one another. Their solo lap times without assistance (other than James Hinchcliffe) have left something to be desired. On the other hand, Josef Newgarden has been fast on his own early in practice sessions AND later on with drafting partners. It's more likely to see somebody like him near the top. But today is all that matters (which is why I reserve the right to...and in fact will...change my projected starting lineup after today's practice session).

So, without further adieu, let's meet the field of 33.

Row 1: Josef Newgarden (R)       James Hinchcliffe           Helio Castroneves (W)
Row 2: Scott Dixon (W)              Marco Andretti             Simon Pagenaud (R)
Row 3: Graham Rahal                 Bryan Clauson (R)         J.R. Hildebrand
Row 4: Ryan Hunter-Reay          Charlie Kimball              Oriol Servia
Row 5: Justin Wilson                   Dario Franchitti (W)      Will Power
Row 6: Takuma Sato                  Tony Kanaan                 Ryan Briscoe
Row 7: James Jakes (R)             Alex Tagliani                  Sebastian Saavedra
Row 8: Townsend Bell           |    E.J. Viso                       Mike Conway
Row 9: Ana Beatriz                    Michel Jordain               Wade Cunningham (R)
Row 10: Sebastien Bourdais       Ed Carpenter                 Rubens Barrichello (R)
Row 11: Simona de Silvestro      Jean Alesi (R)                 Katherine Legge (R)

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