Indy 500 - Odds to Win

I've been so busy preparing for the heat wave to hit Indianapolis (race day forecast is now for 94 degrees) that I have neglected to get my daily posts on here....okay so that's not the real reason but oh well. Truth is, I wanted to make this post perfect and leave no driver unrepresented or underrepresented. Don't worry, we'll catch up in the next two days before heading out to Indy for some live broadcasts on Saturday.

In my last Month of May post, I gave some preliminary odds for each racer to win the Greatest Spectacle in Racing. Yes, these are MY odds, and probably not the most accurate in some areas. But, from my analysis and personal opinions, these are fair odds for each driver to drink the milk.

So, without further adieu (and I've kept you all waiting long enough), here are each driver's chances to win on Sunday! Enjoy!

Ryan Briscoe
(Team Penske - Chevrolet)

Odds to win: 7:1

Starting Position: 1.  Penske is fast again at Indy (surprise) and in 2012 (again, surprise). He's had Indy issues before, though, so I'm not ready to put him as the #1 favorite. He's always been good in qualifying, not only at Indy but elsewhere as well. Race day is another story, however.

James Hinchcliffe
(Andretti Autosport - Chevrolet)
Odds to win: 5:1
 

Starting Position: 2.  0.0023 seconds over ten miles. That's an eight inch difference between him and Briscoe. Let's just say he's the fastest. It's close enough. And he's been fast with AA in all practices. Wouldn't it be nice to see the GoDaddy car in Victory Lane the year after Danica goes?  #Hinch4Homepage

Ryan Hunter-Reay
(Andretti Autosport - Chevrolet)
Odds to win: 15:1
 

Starting Position: 3.  RHR has shown promise this year, but still has been known to have issues during the race. Still, as a front-row starter, he must be given some good odds to win. He's fast too, Chevy, AA. Coming off of a 2^nd place finish at Sao Paulo, he’s a must-consider. But, in my odds, his oval resume just isn’t quite good enough for me to name put him quite as high as the two teammates sandwiching him on the starting grid.

Marco Andretti
(Andretti Autosport - Chevrolet)
Odds to win: 10:1
 

Starting Position: 4.  It’s hard to be disappointed with a 4^th place start at Indy, but Andretti surely has every right to be. His car had been fastest yet he finished almost a full mph behind two of his teammates. The setup and timing just didn’t quite work out. Four top ten finishes at Indy means he’s even more of a great chance to win!

Will Power
(Team Penske - Chevrolet)
Odds to win: 12:1
 

Starting Position: 5.  He has won three straight going into Indy and leads the points. But that’s on the road courses. He’s not nearly as strong on ovals.  Last year he finished a lap down at Indy. He’s hot and racing better than ever. He is surely capable of winning, road or oval. But, his only oval win came at Texas last year where he started third and his competitors were starting 15^th or lower.

Helio Castroneves (W)
(Team Penske - Chevrolet)
Odds to win: 10:1
 

Starting Position: 6.  Three reasons to pick Helio: 2001, 2002, 2009. Four more reasons to pick Helio: 2003, 2007, 2009, 2010. Three wins, four poles. Fast again. An Indy legend.  Always a threat to win. Chevy power, Penske racing, Helio Castroneves…what a winning combo!

Josef Newgarden (R)
(Sarah Fisher Hartman Racing - Honda)
Odds to win: 50:1
 

Starting Position: 7.  The sole Honda engine in the top 10, the rookie Newgarden probably is the best bet for Honda to make Victory Lane again. He’s shown speed from the beginning, in traffic and on his own.  He has shown his rookie qualities this year, though, with a couple of poor decisions. If he can avoid them, he’s a good “long shot” to win. I like his chances. But rookie + small SFHR team = probably not drinking the milk.

Tony Kanaan
(KV Racing Technologies - Chevrolet)
Odds to win: 15:1
 

Starting Position: 8.  TK led in his first seven Indy 500s. He’s done everything BUT win the big one. Then his team went and used some big strategy during the fast nine. Drivers in the fast nine get an extra set of tires to qualify one last time. They used their “attempt” to take their warmup lap and that’s it. They now have an extra set of brand new Firestone tires for the race. That could prove to be crucial, just the edge Kanaan might need to finally make it to Victory Lane.

E.J. Viso
(KV Racing Technologies - Chevrolet)
Odds to win: 70:1
 

Starting Position: 9.  If there is a pool out there for “who will crash on the first lap” then the answer is undoubtedly E.J. Viso.  However, the extra tire strategy TK used is the same for Viso. Also, the team has cars in starting positions 8-9-10 to work together from the beginning. That’s why his odds are anywhere under 100:1.

Rubens Barrichello (R)
(KV Racing Technologies - Chevrolet)
Odds to win: 40:1
 

Starting Position: 10.  I knew Rubens would find a way to get up to speed at Indy, his first career oval. I didn’t think it’d be like this! Even on his road/street specialty, he never has been a great qualifier. His 10^th place start is his best in his IndyCar Series career…and it’s on an oval…and he’s never raced on an oval. He knows how to race. My biggest worry is getting through the first lap with the rows of three. I hope his team tells him to take it easy at the start and to hook up with his teammates starting 8^th and 9^th. If he does that, man I’ll have my eye on him the whole race, waiting for him to patiently work his way to the front.

Alex Tagliani
(Bryan Herta Autosport - Honda)
Odds to win: 50:1
 

Starting Position: 11.  We know BHA knows how to win the 500, as Dan Wheldon made it to Victory Lane last year. We know Tagliani can find speed, as he won the pole position at Indy last year. Now that they have Honda instead of Lotus, Tags is all of a sudden a legitimate contender to win. Bryan Herta will drive Wheldon’s car pre-race. Maybe he’ll get to ride in the pace car after the race as well.

Graham Rahal
(Service Central Chip Ganassi Racing - Honda)
Odds to win: 20:1
 

Starting Position: 12.  He has improved each year at the Brickyard.  He finished 33^rd and 31^st in his first two races at Indy with Newman/Haas/Lanigan Racing, including starting 4th in 2009. He then finished 12^th with his father’s team in 2010, and finished 3^rd with Ganassi last year after starting 30^th. He passed cars left and right last year. He’s improved each year, and there’s not much more room for improvement! He’s been a force on the ovals with Ganassi Racing, and as a result he’s my mid-pack favorite to win.

Ana Beatriz
(Andretti Autosport - Chevrolet)
Odds to win: 80:1
 

Starting Position: 13.  She has speed with AA, there is no doubt about that one. She is also likely the least accomplished of the five Andretti drivers. In two career starts at Indy with Dryer & Reinbold Racing, she finished 21^st both years.  Speed (AA + Chevy) gives her good odds to win. Her lack of experience and success keeps the odds from being any better.

Charlie Kimball
(Novo Nordisk Chip Ganassi Racing - Honda)
Odds to win: 60:1
 

Starting Position: 14.  Kimball was a big part of the finish of last year’s Indy 500…he was the driver that J.R. Hildebrand tried to pass in turn 4 that led to the greatest finish ever. Hildebrand got into the marbles, hit the wall, and the rest is history as Wheldon made the winning pass around Hildebrand’s crippled machine. Experience has done well for Kimball, as more seat time has seen him improving each race. In his sophomore 500, can this Ganassi boy make his mark?

Scott Dixon (W)
(Target Chip Ganassi Racing - Honda)
Odds to win: 25:1
 

Starting Position: 15.  The Ganassi team has had trouble getting up to speed at Indy this year. Two former champions on the team and neither can crack the top 15 on Pole Day. They know how to race, though. Ganassi normally will start up front, set up for leading the race, and pull away. They’ll do the same now knowing they will be in traffic most of the race. Dixon has been up near the front many times this year, and you’re crazy if you don’t think the Target car won’t be competing for the win.

Dario Franchitti (W)
(Target Chip Ganassi Racing - Honda)
Odds to win: 25:1
 

Starting Position: 16.  The second of the former champions in Target machines…you can tell he’s frustrated. After his fourth straight IndyCar Series championship last year, his average finish this year is 11^th. He only has one top 5 finish, the other’s in the double digits. His team plays strategy, and knowing he’ll be in traffic will be a big “advantage” for the team. Can Dario win? Absolutely.

James Jakes (R)
(Dale Coyne Racing - Honda)
Odds to win: 90:1
 

Starting Position: 17.  Jakes showed early speed in practice this week, then got swarmed up in a hurry. He failed to qualify last year (surprise surprise) with little speed.  He might be the faster of the two team cars this year, but still he’s a rookie at Indy and very inexperienced as a driver all around. A long shot to say the least, I don’t see him in Victory Lane.

J.R. Hildebrand
(Panther Racing - Chevrolet)
Odds to win: 45:1
 

Starting Position: 18.  Panther has been strong with Chevy back in the power plant. But that’s not why I’m excited about Hildebrand’s possibilities. As a rookie last year, Hildebrand was one turn away from winning the 500. That’s not why I’m excited about Hildebrand’s possibilities. My liking for J.R. in his second race is due to his ability to bounce back after that devastating finish last year. Also, he has a strong teammate Oriol Servia to give some extra pointers. But, most of all, it’s that Panther Racing has finished 2^nd at Indianapolis now three years in a row. Man are they due.

Takuma Sato
(Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing - Honda)
Odds to win: 45:1
 

Starting Position: 19.  Sato started showing some promise on the ovals last year after years of prominence on the road circuits dating back to his F1 days. He even won pole at Iowa. His 33^rd place finish at Indy last year leaves many doubting the Tokyo native, but not me. I’ve seen great drives from Sato. I love his aggressiveness, evidenced by his first IndyCar podium at Sao Paulo. A mid-pack warrior, keep your eye on Sato’s car.

Townsend Bell
(Sam Schmidt Motorsports - Honda) 
Odds to win: 80:1
 

Starting Position: 20.  He’s a one-off driver year after year.  He’s also a consistent competitor and relative threat at Indy. He qualified fourth last year, tenth the year before, and finished fourth in 2009. His Sam Schmidt entry doesn’t have the speed like last year, however, making him a tough pick to choose this year.

Justin Wilson
(Dale Coyne Racing - Honda)
Odds to win: 90:1
 

Starting Position: 21.  Wilson is a guy you just want to see win. He’s never had the good team, never the greatest ride, and has always had the odds stacked against him. At 6’3”, he’s by far the tallest in the IndyCar Series. That height (and subsequent weight) disadvantage puts him in difficult waters. He fights through, however. In terms of chances to win, though, his best finish at Indy was 7^th in 2009. He’s a long shot for sure.

Michel Jourdain
(Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing - Honda)
Odds to win: 100:1
 

Starting Position: 22.  He hasn’t raced at Indianapolis since 1996. He started 8^th and finished 13^th. He hasn’t been in an open-wheel car since 2004 when he raced in CART. Kudos to him for getting back in the car and qualifying successfully (and well). But, the odds are against him.

Simon Pagenaud (R)
(Schmidt-Hamilton Motorsports - Honda)
Odds to win: 90:1
 

Starting Position: 23.  Pagenaud came into the IndyCar Series as a road course specialist. He did well enough to earn a full time ride. Now he’s in his first oval race in the series. He got to speed quickly but never really increased that speed. For his first oval race, he’s appeared a bit timid. Maybe that will change, but it’s not giving him good chances to win.

Sebastian Saavedra
(AFS Racing / Andretti Autosport - Chevrolet)
Odds to win: 80:1
 

Starting Position: 24.  For sharing the great power and team of AA, it’s sad Saavedra could barely squeeze in for bump day. How much was him and how much was the fire that made him waive their first run at qualifying? Who knows. I just know that in his opening years in the Series he has never impressed me. Being a Chevy and being able to work with big guns like Marco and Hinch help my liking of him, but not by much.

Sebastien Bourdais
(Dragon Racing - Chevrolet)
Odds to win: 60:1
 

Starting Position: 25.  With Lotus power, Bourdais was an exceptional ride with no chance to win. Now with Chevy, Bourdais is a legitimate contender again. He hasn’t raced at Indy since 2005 (started 15^th, finished 12^th). He always seems to finish better than he starts, even on the toughest of road courses. We’ll see if he can remember how to run the big oval of Indy. He’s my darkhorse. He’s the one from the back of the pack to keep your eye on. Watch the black and silver snake its way through the field. Mark my words he’ll be a top ten result at worst (as long as he doesn’t get wiped out by carnage in front of him).

Wade Cunningham (R)
(A.J. Foyt Enterprises - Honda)
Odds to win: 120:1
 

Starting Position: 26.  He out-qualified his teammate…and Cunningham is the one-off rider for this team? Foyt just has had trouble this year. Honda hasn’t helped (compared to Chevy) but it’s just not the year for 14 or 41. Cunningham is a rookie too don’t forget…

Oriol Servia
(Panther/Dreyer & Reinbold Racing - Chevrolet)
Odds to win: 75:1
 

Starting Position: 27.  The appearance of Oriol Servia with Panther Racing has me excited.  He already was a great racer with a great team, and even with the disappointing Lotus power earlier in the year, Servia still had managed to gain the most positions from start to finish this year. Now in a dual-effort and with Chevy power, Servia is a force to be reckoned with. He starts 27^th, but don’t forget he started 3^rd and led laps last year at Indy.

Ed Carpenter
(Ed Carpenter Racing - Chevrolet)
Odds to win: 150:1
 

Starting Position: 28.  Consistently the slowest of the Chevy teams all year. Sorry Ed, even though you won the last oval race in IndyCar, there’s no chance of that happening this year, especially not at Indy.

Mike Conway
(A.J. Foyt Enterprises - Honda)
Odds to win: 120:1
 

Starting Position: 29.  I’ll give the veteran Conway the same odds as his teammate a row in front of him because He has the potential for speed and success. Conway is due for a good solid Indy run. In his rookie 2010 his season ended at Indy with one nasty crash (I still get chills when I think back to seeing that crash happen right in front of me) in turn three. Then last year his AA car wasn’t fast enough to make the field. He’s due.

Katherine Legge (R)
(Dragon Racing - Chevrolet)
Odds to win: 500:1 
 

Starting Position: 30.  Legge has done nothing to impress on track this year. Off track she’s been a great advocate for the sport and for TrueCar, but her performance (you can probably blame Lotus for 90% of it) has been lacking.  So, with minimal time to get on track at Indy, I don’t expect any chance at Legge making a charge forward.

Bryan Clauson (R)
(Sarah Fisher Hartman Racing - Chevrolet)
Odds to win: 180:1
 

Starting Position: 31.  On Pole Day, Clauson was putting down laps of 224 mph. Then on the last lap, the car wiggled and he hit the wall. It was the first crash with the new DW12 chassis, and sadly Clauson did not have a backup one. The crew worked to repair the car enough, and he qualified the next day about 10 mph slower. Was it nerves after a rough crash? Was it a mishandling and unfinished car? Was it a “we’re not going to get bumped, just put in four laps and who cares how fast” qualifying effort? We’ll find out. But, if it was that the car wasn’t fully fixed, and now with a week off before the race the car has been repaired, you could see Clauson weaving through the field.  Just hope he doesn’t get too aggressive too soon or else we might see the first in-race crash at Indy in the DW12.

Simona de Silvestro
(Lotus-HVM Racing - Lotus)
Odds to win: 100000:1
 

Starting Position: 32.  I love Simona. I feel badly that she’s consistently behind the eight ball with Lotus power. She’s taking it well and I commend her for it, but it doesn’t help her odds. She’s going to be playing the role of just staying out of the way. The flag man will need some ice due to all of the waving of the blue flag (telling a lapped car to yield) needed during this race. It will seem like a race of old where the back row of cars just do circles at their own pace with no chance of any significance during the race. I just hope (and know) she’ll behave and stay out of the way as best as possible.

Jean Alesi (R)
(Fan Force United  - Lotus)
Odds to win: First Born:1
 

Starting Position: 33.  Alesi doesn’t want to race in the 500 now. He feels his Lotus machine is a hazard going so much slower (qualified 16 mph slower than pole speed) than the rest of the field. This is his first oval and he’s just too passive to do anything even if he did have a proper power plant.  He might pull a Dr. Jack Miller and take more laps on the warm up lane than on the track itself.  Unless there’s a 32-car pileup on the first lap and Alesi  goes so slowly that he can stop and avoid it altogether, you’re not going to see this rookie win on his first oval race.