In Need of a Triple Crown

This is just a quick post in anticipation of today's Kentucky Derby. Today begins the five week quest to disappointment, as this will be the 34th straight year without a Triple Crown winner.

Now, I know what you're all saying right about now: How can I possibly know that there will not be a Triple Crown winner this year?

The answer is quite simple, however: Consistency.


Running races of 1 1/4, 1 3/16, and 1 1/2 miles is a grueling process. Then, add to it that these three races are run within five weeks of each other, and you wonder how any of these animals could ever achieve this great accomplishment. I've personally seen, up close and personal (though not as often as I would have liked), these beautiful Thoroughbreds. It takes at least two weeks of recuperation after a six furlong race before these horses can be in any shape to even ATTEMPT run a race again. So now going over a mile (the shortest Triple Crown race is 9.5 furlongs) for each race with only three and two weeks of rest between legs of the Triple Crown, it's no surprise horses struggle to win all three.

More recently, many horses have dominated the first two legs, but then faltered down the stretch in the grueling 1.5 mile Belmont Stakes. Silver Charm ('97), Real Quiet ('98), Charismatic ('99), War Emblem ('02), Funny Cide ('03), Smarty Jones ('04), and Big Brown ('07) all won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness in the last 15 years, but could not complete the Triple Crown by winning the Belmont Stakes.  The mile-and-a-half run is just too much for these animals, especially on such short rest.

Because of that short rest, you see lots of horses taking off the Preakness and returning for the Belmont Stakes. Some even race ONLY in the Belmont, have a two race rest advantage over a horse going for the Crown. A well-rested, mediocre horse can beat a winded Triple Crown contender. Twenty horses sometimes go out for the Kentucky Derby, thinking they have a chance at the roses or the Triple Crown. Once 19 of those horses fall short, almost half (on average) drop out of the Preakness. The owners feel then they may have a shot at the final leg at the Belmont Stakes.

Another big problem with the Triple Crown is the age of the competitors. Three-year-old Thoroughbreds run the Triple Crown races each year. In my opinion, horses are not nearly developed well enough by age three to compete 1. to their fullest potential, or 2. for that many miles in that short of a time. This racing just does not produce the ability for consistent Triple Crown winners. And maybe that's a good thing, maybe not.

The most exciting two minutes in sports may be quickly plummeting due to the lack of Triple Crown potential. Is it fair? No. But fans love falling in love with a competitor (whether it be horse, person, team, whatever) and watching that competitor succeed. In Triple Crown horse racing, the only horse racing that gets any sort of coverage by the "powers that be" out there, fans have three races in five weeks to fall in love. After that, it's all over, and none of those horse names will be heard of again. Think about it: The big horse names that come to mind from more than five years ago are most likely War Admiral, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, and Secretariat. What do they have in common? They are four of the eleven triple crown winners.

There was a 25 year drought between 1948 and 1972 with no Triple Crown. Then, in 1973, a horse named Secretariat won the hearts of millions, pulling away in the Belmont when all others would typically falter down the stretch. Secretariat won by an unprecedented and unmatched 31 lengths, averaging 37 mph in that race, running a 2:24 flat, shattering the record for the Belmont, a record that still stands today (in fact, no other horse has broken a 2:25 in the 1 1/2 miler).

Will it take another "diamond in the rough" like Secretariat before a Triple Crown is to happen again? Or is it just not possible with the format and with training/breeding being so evenly matched? You know my thoughts...we'll see for sure in a few weeks.