2012 Heisman Trophy Preview

Tonight, history will be made when the 2012 Heisman Trophy winner is announced.

Will Collin Klein be the first Kansas State player to win the Heisman?

Will Johnny Manziel become the first freshman to win the Heisman?

Will Manti Te’o be the first solely defensive player to win the Heisman?

These are the questions that will be left unanswered until Saturday night. But that’s no fun. So, we’ll break down each of the Heisman candidates and their accolades. Then each of us will make our Heisman vote.

The Heisman Trophy is awarded to the outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity. All three have shown excellence, but which has been the most outstanding player (not the best player) during the 2012 season? Who do you think deserves to win?

 

Collin Klein (Senior, QB, Kansas State)

2012 Season: We all knew Collin Klein was a great running QB. In 2011, Klein tied Ricky Williams for the most rushing TDs (27) in a season by a Big 12 player. That total also tied Ricky Dobbs for most among FBS quarterbacks in a single season. However, in 2012, he showed us a different side of his game: the passing game. Klein threw for 2,490 yards and 15 TDs, significant increases over his 2011 stats. He also ran for 890 yards and 22 TDs. He was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year – a major accomplishment for arguably the most prolific scoring conference in the game. He also won the Johnny Unitis Golden Arm Award, given to the nation’s most outstanding senior QB. His Wildcats began the season 10-0, and finished the season ranked #5 in the country as the Big 12 Conference Champions with an 11-1 record. They will face #4 Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl.

Why “Optimus Klein” will win the Heisman:

•  Klein has that bruising style of play that voters like to see. They voted for sophomore Tim Tebow back in 2007 even when his team had a 9-4 record. Klein is Tebow 2.0, except his team was better this year than Tebow’s in 2007.
• Many voters consider the Heisman to be more about the most VALUABLE player rather than the most OUTSTANDING player. Klein fits that bill, as defenses must know at all times where he is. The offense runs through Klein. Without Collin Klein, Kansas State would not be anywhere close to being a BCS team.
• He is a SENIOR. He has a big advantage over the other finalist at his position because of seniority. Compared to a freshman, many old school voters (right or wrong) will vote for Klein because of his age. Many just will not vote for a freshman, period.
• He plays quarterback on a team where the offense lives and dies by the QB. And, just plain and simple, he plays QUARTERBACK!

Why “Optimus Klein” will not win the Heisman:

• Collin Klein was good, solid, and consistent all year, but he never had the prototypical “Heisman Moment” that so many victors have seen. He was not overly flashy, just got the job done. With some of the big name stars out there in college football, you need that moment to put you over the top.
• Klein had his worst game of the year against Baylor, a team ranked 117th in points allowed. The Wildcats put up only 24 points that game. Klein had three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) in the game, but also had three costly INTs in the game.
• Kansas State just does not get the media exposure to all markets. Other than the central region of the country, who sees him? The west will be focused on Oregon and Stanford and USC games. The east is focused on Big Ten and SEC football. Klein flew under the radar for 80% of the season, and then when his team hit #1 and was prime time, he faltered. When nearly all of the votes come from media personnel from around the country, it’s tough to vote for a guy when you don’t see him play regularly.

Johnny Manziel (Freshman, QB, Texas A&M)

2012 Season: The redshirt-freshman Johnny Manziel came on to the scene with a fury! He amassed an SEC-record 4,600 total yards of offense for the Aggies. He also led the conference with 1,181 yards on the ground, topping the century mark in six of his twelve games. He threw for 24 touchdowns and ran for 17 more (including seven multi-TD games on the ground). His Aggies finished ranked 9th in the BCS standings and will face #11 Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl. 

Why “Johnny Football” will win the Heisman:

• Manziel had the big “Heisman Moment” that all trophy winners have when he led his Aggies to victory over #1 Alabama in Tuscaloosa. You’ll see the replay of his scramble-fumble-recover-scramble-touchdown pass play at least ten different times on Saturday. That play and the game as a whole mark a Heisman winner’s legend.
• Johnny Football broke the total yards records that set by Tim Tebow and later by Cam Newton (both won the Heisman during the year they broke the record).
• May not be the “best” player this year (Manti Te’o won the Maxwell award for college player of the year) but he surely was the most outstanding this year. Many quarterbacks (including Collin Klein) could be considered better. But, it’s about being outstanding, which Manziel certainly was this year. To perform that well in the SEC of all conferences is extremely commendable. (wow, we just complimented the SEC….)
• Manziel won the Davey O’Brien Award, which goes to the best quarterback in college football.
• Everybody knows about “Johnny Football” nationwide. The buzz around him has been huge all year. He made the cannonball splash with his road win in Alabama.

 

Why “Johnny Football” will not win the Heisman:

• He’s a freshman, voters might look badly on that. Whether fair or not, many “traditionalists” out there simply will NOT vote for a freshman.
• His Aggies did not make a BCS game. In fact, they did not even make their conference championship game. SEC or not, it’s tough to say that this guy was outstanding for his team if (as the quarterback) he cannot lead them to a conference championship or BCS bid. Actually, his team finished FIFTH in the conference.
• Team was good last year as well without him. Manziel replaced now NFL-starting QB Ryan Tannehill, who led the Aggies to a 7-6 record with a defunct defense. Tannehill threw for 3,744 yards (more than Manziel) and 29 TDs (also more than Manziel). That defense improved this year. If it was Tannehill still under center, A&M might have HIM as their Heisman winner.
• Stat padding: Manziel faced three teams during the season who are currently ranked in the BCS top 25.  In those games, he averaged 293 yards of total offense and a TOTAL of 3 touchdowns. He averaged 90 yards MORE than that on the season, and averaged 3.58 TDs PER GAME during the year. When it mattered most, Manziel was silent. (Many want to compare Johnny Football to Cam Newton…in 2010, Newton averaged 309 yards per game and scored 25 TDs in his seven game against ranked opponents) Also, when the game was close (within 7 points), Manziel only accounted for 44% of the team’s offense (compared to 59% and 49% for fellow freshmen Brent Hundley and Marcus Mariota, respectively).

 

Manti Te’o (Senior, LB, Notre Dame)

2012 Season: Manti Te’o is the heart of the best defense in the country. He accounted for 103 tackles (52 solo) with 5 tackles for loss. He also had 1.5 sacks on the year. His biggest contribution came in pass defense, intercepting seven passes (2nd in NCAA) this year. Surprisingly enough, he never intercepted a pass in college prior to 2012. Te’o also recovered two fumbles for the Irish. With him captaining the Notre Dame defense, the Irish led the league in scoring defense with 10.3 points per game allowed. The most points the Irish allowed in regulation was 20 (to Pittsburgh). In four games against ranked opponents (Michigan State, Michigan, Stanford, Oklahoma), the Irish allowed only 8.75 points per game. Te’o and the Irish will face #2 Alabama in a defensive battle in the BCS Championship game in Miami.

Why Manti will win the Heisman:

• He nearly single-handedly is the reason they go to national championship game. The Te’o-led defense has carried the Irish through the season and to Miami. The Irish offense ranks 76th in the country in scoring, averaging 26.8 points per game. Take out blowout wins over Navy, Miami, and Wake Forest, and Notre Dame is averaging just 21.4 points per game in regulation.
• As a unit, the Notre Dame defense put up “Heisman Moment” performances against Stanford and USC. The OT goal line stand against Stanford put the Irish defense and Te’o on the map. Then, to end the season, the Irish stopped USC when they had 1st and goal from the one. Those two goal line stands epitomized the dominance of Te’o and the Irish defense.
• The emotional factor, whether fair or not to consider it, will probably be a deciding factor in whether or not Manti Te’o wins the Heisman Trophy.  Everybody has heard the story of Manti losing his girlfriend and grandmother within 24 hours of each other, and then putting together a “Heisman Moment” performance just days later against Michigan, on the day his girlfriend’s funeral.  Te’o honored Lennay with two interceptions against the arch-rival Wolverines. Whether it’s that performance, the leis worn around Notre Dame Stadium, or the symbolic #5 being waived by fans,  the support for Te’o might will him to the Heisman.
• Only one other defensive player has won the Heisman Trophy: Desmond Howard. Howard also ran plays on offense and special teams, though. Te’o actually has equal / greater defensive stats compared to Desmond Howard’s 1997 Heisman winning season. Te’o has twice as many tackles this year as Howard (44) had, and both Te’o and Howard snagged 7 INTs during their respective seasons.
• Media exposure. Period. With Notre Dame playing weekly on NBC (or at prime time on ABC), every voter out there has seen Manti Te’o live on multiple occasions. That’s tough to beat.

Why Manti will not win the Heisman:

•  He plays on defense. How can the most outstanding player in college football not be a QB or RB in this day and age? Not only is he a defensive player, he DID NOT HAVE ONE SNAP ON OFFENSE or special teams. So while his stats far surpass Desmond Howard (the only other defensive player to win the Heisman), he did not do many things that Howard did, such as take plays at WR and return punts on special teams.
•  May be the “best” player, but may not be the “most outstanding” this year. He won the Maxwell Award, signifying him as the best player in college football. But compared to guys like Johnny Manziel and Collin Klein who played out of their mind?
•  In a stats-based league, it’s the stats that will keep Te’o from the Heisman. Compared to other defenders, Te’o is average. His tackles numbers are way down from previous years, and nearly half of the other teams in the BCS bowls this year have a player on defense with more tackles than Te’o.
• Consistency: There were games this year where Te’o was all over the field. But then the next game, you would barely hear his name. That may be just the design of the defense based on a matchup, but that’s detrimental to winning a Heisman Trophy.

  

3SN Selections:

The Mad Scientist: Manti Te’o – He DESERVES IT, first off. A majority of the voters are in the midwest, and the rest nationwide see Te'o play on NBC weekly. He's already won four major college football awards this year, and will soon get the fifth for his mantel. 

The Saint: Manti Te’o – He had the biggest impact on their team and they are playing for a national title. Without Te’o, the Irish wouldn’t be where they are. The best play he makes in a game might not even make it into the stat sheets, so ignore the stats. A defensive guy can and SHOULD win the Heisman.

The Value Man: Collin Klein – Everybody keeps downgrading how much Klein deserves the Heisman based on his team’s loss to Baylor. He still had all three of his team’s touchdowns in that game. Of all three candidates, he’s in my mind been the most valuable to his team. Without Klein, the Wildcats aren’t a top 25 team, nevertheless BCS-bound. He’s also been consistent all year, putting up numbers even when opponents KNOW he’s getting the ball. I just don't want you to forget about Klein. He's most worthy of it. (I think Manziel will win it, I think Te’o deserves it most, but I think Klein is most worthy of it based on the consistency of play this year and over his full career)