He Said / He Said - The Mountaineers of West Virginia

West Virginia is dominating the college football world right now. Geno Smith has 24 TDs, 0 INTs, leading his Mountaineers to 52 points per game (5th in the country). All roads seem to be leading to the National Championship and a Heisman Trophy for Smith. Or is it? Dot and Dellav have very differing views here. Who do you think is right?


Dellav:

This feels like 2007 all over again. The #5 ranked West Virginia Mountaineers might be on their way to a BCS national championship game. Their offense is unstoppable and Geno Smith is a legit Heisman candidate. Do I think this team is better than the Pat White / Steve Slaton Hoopies from five years ago? Yes. Because they can run the ball as well as throw it. Pat White threw the ball like 5 times all year in 2007 but he and Slaton rushed for I think 600 yards a game. The 2012 Hoopies have all the pieces on offense: A great quarterback, running back, and a great set of receivers.  Seriously, their receivers don't drop a pass! Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey have been phenomenal and West Virginia got a career game from sophomore running back Andrew Buie, who slashed his way through the Texas defense for 207 yards and two touchdowns on 31 carries. He was key in multiple scoring drives, including the final one which ate up time and sealed the win. 

What upsets me the most though is that Pitt was actually trying to get Dana Holgerson right after they let Wannstedt "resign" in December of 2010. Athletic Director Steve Pederson didn't want to spend the money on him and instead decided to hire the great Michael Haywood. Seriously, WVU should thank Steve Pederson for being a terrible A.D. He alone is responsible for the Mountaineers success. 

I could see Pederson leaving WVU down the road, but he would be wise to stay there. West Virginia is just a really, really good program. They have been good for over a decade. Athletic Director Oliver Luck knows how to build a winning program. He has made good football hires and when all seemed lost for the Hoopies, he found a way to get them into the Big 12. There really isn't a tough team left on West Virginia's schedule. I know some will point to Oklahoma but remember they beat the Sooners a few years ago in a BCS game. They also beat Georgia in the Sugar Bowl a few years back so they can handle SEC teams as well. So all in all, it's up to the Hoopies not to blow it. And from what it seems, they aren't giving me a reason to think they will....

Dot:

In the words of Lee Corso: NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND!

Everybody started getting excited about the WVU after they put up 70 points against Baylor. Anybody who followed college football knew that this game was going to be in the fifties or beyond. Baylor ranked 90th out of 120 in scoring defense, allowing 30 points per game BEFORE playing the Mountaineers. Am I impressed by Geno Smith's 8 TD performance? Absolutely. Am I surprised by it? Absolutely not. I truly would have been disappointed if that team didn't put up 50+ on the Bears.

The next week against Texas was the real first test for West Virginia. The #8 Mountaineers had to travel to the #11 Longhorns, who averaged a mere 21 points per game. That's still good for about 45th in the country in terms of scoring defense in the country. But even that number is skewed...they shut out a scrub team of New Mexico and then allowed 31 to Ole Miss (ranked about mid-pack in the country in scoring offense). Geno Smith threw for four more TDs as WVU wins 48-45. He needed to survive a missed FG by Penn State transfer Anthony Fera late in the game for Dellav's Hoopies to win. 

Is this an impressive win? Yes, of course it is, any win against a top 25 team especially on the road is impressive. However, I still have not learned a thing about this Mountaineer team. Until they play a team with a legit defense, I can't say anything more about WVU, and definitely not about a title shot.

Look at their upcoming opponents and the points they allow per game this year:

Texas Tech - 16.8 (23rd)
Kansas State - 15.6 (16th)
TCU - 13.2 (10th)
Oklahoma State - 31.0 (90th)
Oklahoma - 16 (20th)
Iowa State - 15.8 (19th)
Kansas - 29.6 (86th) 


Even Texas Tech's is skewed, however. Their opening games against Northwestern State, Texas State, and New Mexico show me nothing about their defense. Iowa State and Oklahoma have been slugging on offense too, so even their conference opponents mean little to me. The big test will be the next two games after that. Kansas State has a high powered offense as well, but a (legit) top 20 defense. They already had to win a game 24-17. To be great, you need to win the high-scoring games as well as the defensive struggles. The Wildcats have proven they can do it. I don't think WVU can. They've struggled in that area in prior years (13-9 ring a bell, Dellav?) and there's no reason to think that can't happen again. 

WVU moving to the Big XII from the Big East was great in terms of their play style. Their spread game is perfect against mediocre defenses, which the Big XII has always had. Though the Big East has been known as the BCS babies, they've produced some mighty strong defenses over the years, and that has cost the Mountaineers at times over the years.

Let's talk hypotheticals, though. Just say that somehow WVU makes the national title game (assuming they'd play an SEC team, Alabama or South Carolina most likely). The Tide allow 7.0 points per game, the Gamecocks 10.5 points per game. An SEC defense is about 5x faster than a Big XII defense. A number three corner on Alabama would be the top corner on just about every team in the Big XII. If WVU plays 'Bama or SCAR in the title game, I predict them holding the great and powerful Geno Smith to single digits. 

Bold prediction? How about a more bold one: they lose two more games this year BEFORE bowl season. Geno Smith will stumble against a team with at least something resembling a defense.