Championship Week - BCS Preview

Current BCS Rankings

The final regular season BCS rankings have two SEC teams at the top again, three in the top eight. Two non-BCS teams are in the top 7, and the B1G and Big East aren't seen in the top 12! It's possible that automatic qualifiers from the BCS conferences may have records of 7-6 and 7-5, yet an undefeated Houston team may not even get a chance at the title. In a word: Chaos.

So here’s the deal: No matter what happens this weekend in college football, there will be outcries against the BCS. No matter what happens, some team will feel left out, unable to prove to the world that they are worthy of a National Title. 

But, instead of critiquing the BCS (we’ll save that for AFTER the bowl games are announced…) let’s instead look at the big games this weekend and try to figure out who’s in and who’s out.

Conference USA

24 Southern Miss (10-2)  vs.  6 Houston (12-0)

What’s at stake: Let’s start with the easiest and most controversial BCS team: The Houston Cougars. If they win, they’re in. Plain and simple. As the winner of Conference USA and being in the top 12 in the BCS rankings, they receive an automatic bid into the BCS if they beat Southern Miss. They will not make the BCS with a loss on Saturday.

Game Preview:  The fewest points Case Keenum and the Cougar offense has scored this year was 35 at Louisiana Tech early in the year. They average over 52 points per game. The Golden Eagles score 36 per game, though, so expect a shootout in the title game.

Dot's Pick:  Houston 52-35            Dellav's Pick: Houston          

Pac-12

UCLA (6-6)  vs.  9 Oregon (10-2)

What’s at stake: The absence of USC in the inaugural Pac-12 title game is a bummer. However, it makes the BCS picture much simpler.  If Oregon wins, they’ll be off to Pasadena to take on a B1G team in the Rose Bowl. If they lose, they will be left out of the BCS as UCLA would take the Rose Bowl and Stanford the second at-large bid for the conference. UCLA certainly has no chance of making the BCS as an at-large team, as they will have a losing record if they fall to the Ducks.

Game Preview:  This game will not be much of a matchup. Chip Kelly’s offense will be way too much for a Bruin team that has struggled all year, is barely bowl eligible, and has fired their coach. Some may say that this UCLA team will be motivated and emotional to get a BCS birth for their fired coach. All of the motivation in the world probably is not enough, however.

Dot's Pick:  Oregon 48-21                   Dellav's Pick: Oregon        

4 Stanford (11-1)  -  ON BYE

What’s at stake: If the standings stay as they are right now, Stanford actually receives an automatic berth into the BCS as a top-4 team in a BCS conference. The top two teams are obviously automatically in the title game, and #3 Oklahoma State would need to win against Oklahoma to stay #3, and thus would be an auto-bid by winning the Big 12 Conference. If the Cowboys lose, Stanford would move to #3 (at worst) and take the automatic berth for the same reason: a top-4 team in a BCS conference who is not the conference champion.

Big 12

10 Oklahoma (9-2)  at  3 Oklahoma State (10-1)

What’s at stake: This is not technically the Big 12 championship game, but it certainly serves as it. The winner of the annual Bedlam Game will head to the Fiesta Bowl (or better?).  Should Oklahoma pull off the upset, Oklahoma State most likely will still secure an at-large bid, but it would be tight, especially given the uncertainty of the SEC teams. 

Game Preview:  Both teams are averaging over 43 points per game, but both have bad losses on their resume (Oklahoma to Texas Tech, Oklahoma State to Iowa State). That makes this game tough to call. One thing is for sure: with two of the top offensive teams in the country squaring off for a chance at the BCS, it’s going to be, in a word, Bedlam.

Dot's Pick:  Okla. State 41-31           Dellav's Pick: Okla. State           

Iowa State (6-5) at 11 Kansas State (9-2)

What’s at stake: Should Oklahoma lose, K-State can jump into the top 10 of the BCS and can easily take a second Big 12 spot in the BCS with teams like Boise State and Arkansas joining the top 10.

Game Preview:  K-State finally has a chance at the big time, they won’t let that go to waste. ISU may have beaten Oklahoma State, but they’ve been terrible on the road. Klein will dominate this game.

Dot's Pick:  Kansas State 38-14           Dellav's Pick: Kansas State          

ACC

5 Virginia Tech (11-1)  vs.  20 Clemson (9-3)

What’s at stake: Another easy scenario here: The winner will be heading to the Orange Bowl, the loser is almost guaranteed to be out of the BCS picture. The Hokies are ranked high, but their computer rankings are pitiful.  Add a loss to the equation and VA Tech all of a sudden is a team that will not make an at-large berth. A 3-loss Clemson team will not make the BCS as an at-large either.

Game Preview:  The Hokies’ only loss this year came at the hands of Clemson on October 1^st. They haven’t lost since (obviously) while Clemson has lost three of its last four. All momentum seems to be in the corner of the Hokies and coach Frank Beamer, including a nice serving of revenge.

Dot's Pick:  Virginia Tech 27-3           Dellav's Pick: Virginia Tech           

Big Ten (B1G)

15 Wisconsin (10-2)  vs.  13 Michigan State (10-2)

What’s at stake: A trip to the Rose Bowl awaits the winner of this great rematch of the Spartan Hail Mary. If it’s a close game, the loser could possibly squeeze out an at large bid. They’d have to fight off conference foe Michigan, though, who lost to the Spartans and did not play the Badgers.

Game Preview:  The last matchup was a battle of streaks. Wisconsin got up to a huge lead early, Sparty battled back and took a big lead, then gave it up down the stretch as the Badgers scored two late touchdowns. If it weren’t for a senior connection of two Spartans, who actually split time at QB for a while a few years ago, it would have been overtime. The way these two teams have played all year, and especially the way they’re playing right now, it might take more than overtime to decide the victor this time! The Spartan defense did a great job of containing Russell Wilson, and that was without their best pass rusher Ghoulston.

Dot's Pick:  Michigan St. 40-34 (2OT)           Dellav's Pick: Michigan St.          

16 Michigan (10-2)    -   ON BYE

What’s at stake: Michigan’s fan base will propel them to an at large berth, at least that’s what everybody thinks.  I think the Wolverines need a blowout performance in the B1G championship game to secure the bid. In a close game, I pick Wisconsin over Michigan any day of the week, and Michigan State beat Michigan handily.  So unless either the Badgers or Spartans win big in Indianapolis, I don’t think Michigan goes to the BCS.

Big East

23 West Virginia (8-3)  at  South Florida (5-6)

What’s at stake: The Mountaineers first need to win down in Florida to stay alive. They then need Cincinnati to beat Connecticut. This would force a three-way tie between WVU, Cinci, and Louisville. The top team of those three in the BCS rankings would then represent the Big East in the BCS. 

Advantage: WVU.

Game Preview:  South Florida has had a terrible season after starting up in the top 20. WVU is coming off of a tough, emotional win in the Brawl against Pitt. Now after a short week, can they defeat the Bulls on the road? The Mountaineers lost a big road game at Syracuse early in the year.

Dot's Pick:  South Florida 27-24           Dellav's Pick: West Virginia          

Connecticut  (5-6)  at  Cincinnati (8-3)

What’s at stake: If South Florida wins over West Virginia, then Cinci controls their own destiny. If Cinci wins after a Mountaineer victory, it comes down to BCS rankings, which will probably go against the Bearcats.

Game Preview:  UConn may be 5-6 overall, but they’re also 3-3 (very respectable) in the Big East. They control the game and control the scoring, so they might be able to control the Bearcat offense, and the Bearcats allow even fewer points on defense!. In a defensive struggle in cold weather, go for the home team.

Dot's Pick:  Cincinnati 17-7              Dellav's Pick: Cincinnati          

Louisville (7-5)   -   ON BYE

What’s at stake: Louisville just has to wait and see. If Cinci loses, then Louisville represents the Big East no matter what happens to WVU. If WVU loses, Louisville becomes UConn fans. If they both win, then it’s based on the BCS rankings.

SEC

14 Georgia (10-2)  vs.  1 LSU (12-0)

What’s at stake: LSU victory wraps up a perfect season and an obvious BCS championship appearance. Many experts say even a loss will still lead to a championship game appearance…I wouldn’t bet on that. A close loss and they might get lucky, but I wouldn’t believe it. Georgia needs to win, period, to get in the BCS.

Game Preview:  Georgia started 0-2 with losses to #5 Boise State and #12 South Carolina at home. Since then, they have yet to play any quality top 25 teams (they beat #20 Auburn and #23 Georgia Tech). Nevertheless they’ve won 10 in a row.  Even though they have played nobody, they’re in the SEC so they are obviously a top 15 team. (catching my sarcasm yet?)  Arkansas was a joke and had no right to be #3. LSU blew them out. Georgia has not played anybody either, not LSU, not Alabama, not Arkansas. They don’t deserve to be anywhere near the top 10.  LSU will not have any problems.

Dot's Pick:  LSU 41-14               Dellav's Pick: LSU           

Alabama (11-1)   -   ON BYE

What’s at stake: Here’s where it all gets tricky. Alabama seems to be a lock to get into a BCS game, and probably a lock even for the National Title game. However, there are lots of factors here that might lead to the Tide not making it to the title game, and maybe not to any BCS game at all!

Problem #1: If Georgia beats LSU, Georgia gets the automatic BCS berth. That leaves both LSU and Alabama fighting for the second BCS spot for an SEC team. The ONLY way that all three teams make it to the BCS is if both LSU AND Alabama are #1 and #2 in the BCS rankings. The one thing I’ve learned about the BCS and human rankings: it’s not about who you lose to, it’s about WHEN you lose. If LSU loses the last game of the year, I don’t see them staying in the top two, even though they beat one of those two teams (especially in the fashion that they beat Alabama, being completely outplayed all game).   

Problem #2: If LSU beats Georgia, then LSU will maintain the #1 ranking and will be in the title game. Here’s the rub: even though Alabama is the #2 team, there will surely be voters out there (myself included, if I was a voter) who are completely against two teams from the same conference in the National Title game.  Don’t be surprised to see some votes being changed to a team like Oklahoma State or Stanford (if the Cowboys lose) to try to get two conferences into the title game.

Problem #3: They lost to LSU. Even if all goes well and LSU loses, many voters may feel obligated to keep the Tide below the Tigers. Flip a coin. That will better guess what will happen to the Tide.

Top At-Large Teams

Let’s assume the following: The Big East get one team in, Stanford is an auto-bid no matter what, the Pac-12 and ACC Championship game losers have no shot at an at-large, and Houston gets the auto-bid. Let’s also assume for simplicity sake that only two SEC teams make it (so, Georgia does not win, or Georgia wins and LSU/Alabama do not remain #1 and #2).  What remains is a Big 12 and Big Ten champion. The following are how I would rank the remaining at large teams in terms of them getting the last TWO available BCS spots:

1. Oklahoma State (if Oklahoma wins Big 12 Championship)

2. Wisconsin (if Michigan State wins Big Ten Championship)

3. Kansas State (if Oklahoma State wins Big 12 Championship)

4. Michigan State (if Wisconsin wins Big Ten Championship)

5. Boise State

6. Michigan (if Michigan State wins Big Ten Championship SIGNIFICANTLY)

BCS Bowl Projections

Based on our picks above, here’s how we see the BCS bowls shaping up: