2012 IndyCar World Championships Preview

It’s the final showdown!

The IndyCar World Championship will be determined on Saturday at Fontana Raceway in California in the first 500-mile IndyCar race not held in Indianapolis since 2002. And the racing is going to be as hot as the California sun!

First, let’s talk about the season so far. In the aftermath of Dan Wheldon’s tragic death 11 months ago, IndyCar has come back swinging with a new car, engine competition, and the arguably most competitive racing in series history. There have been seven different polesitters and six different race winners in the first 14 races of the year. The new DW12 Dallara chassis has given us the best road and street racing in the IndyCar era. It also has provided great action on the ovals well, including a record 35 lead changes in the Indianapolis 500. And minus the Lotus power plant struggles, engine competition has been a great addition to the quality of the racing as a whole!

It comes down to the final weekend of the season again to decide the series champion…and this is WITHOUT the assistance of some dumb playoff “chase” scenario.  Just 17 points separate points leader Will Power and Ryan Hunter-Reay heading into Fontana.

Will Power has won the Mario Andretti Trophy as the road course champion, and now looks to seal a great 2012 season with the ever elusive IndyCar Championship Trophy after finishing second in the points to Dario Franchitti each of the past two years. He won three of the first four races this year, all on street/road courses (Barber, Long Beach, Sao Paulo). However, he has not won any races since. He’s had opportunities to seal this championship, starting on pole and leading the most laps in each of the last three races (Mid-Ohio, Sonoma, Baltimore) but failing to reach Victory Lane.  

Ryan Hunter-Reay has finished 7^th in the points each of his last two seasons with Andretti Autosport. This year though, thanks to four victories (Milwaukee, Iowa, Toronto, Baltimore) and consistent performances on both road and oval tracks, he finds himself right in the hunt to track down Will Power in the final race of the year. If not for some bad luck at Sonoma and car troubles at Indianapolis and Mid-Ohio, RHR could truly be in the lead heading into the final race. He cannot afford to let another opportunity slip away.

Tale of the Tape:

So, who has the edge going into Fontana? The obvious answer, since it’s an oval, is Ryan Hunter-Reay. The question is, how much of an edge is it? Well, just by looking at average finish, Hunter-Reay appears to be in the driver’s seat. In 2012, his average finish on an oval is 12.5, compared to Power’s average finish of 17.8. Hunter-Reay has won twice on ovals, while Power’s best oval finish this year is 8th. In fact, Will Power has only one oval victory in his career, and that came in the duel races at Texas Motor Speedway last year when his main rivals Scott Dixon and Dario Franchitti started 15th and 28th, respectively. So ovals seem to be in RHR’s favor. However, his two wins came on short ovals, 1 mile in length or less. Fontana is a 2-mile oval, relatively high-banked. That much more compares to Texas or Indianapolis, where his team struggled. Power’s best finish on an oval came at Texas (8th).  And so far through testing and practice, Power seems to be in control, finishing third on the speed charts on Wednesday while Hunter-Reay put his car into the wall.

What needs to happen for Hunter-Reay to win?

How can Ryan Hunter-Reay make up those 17 points? Well, first, let’s assume that neither racer ends up on pole (one point extra) or leading the most laps (two points extra).  Even if Hunter-Reay wins the race on Saturday, Will Power must finish fourth (third if RHR leads most laps) or lower for the American to win the title. If RHR finishes 2nd, Power must finish 9th or lower. Finish 3rd, 12th or lower. In fact, to mathematically even have a shot, Hunter-Reay must finish in the top six. Do keep in mind, though, that Hunter-Reay holds the tiebreaker with the most wins. If Hunter-Reay does not end up on the podium at Fontana, Power can finish as low as 14th and win the trophy.

What needs to happen for the series to win?

It’s no secret that the IZOD IndyCar Series does not get the following that NASCAR does. Fans seem to want the bump and grind, brick-car racing that features little to no technological advances. And that’s exactly what companies like FOX and ESPN provide. The most prestigious form of racing worldwide, Formula1, gets two races a year played on a network channel (if lucky) in America. Why? Probably because there are zero Americans in F1 vs. 99% Americans in NASCAR. IndyCar is also heavy on the foreign-born racers. Guess what, though, that means that the series has BETTER RACERS because they’re from EVERYWHERE, not just the USA.

That being said, IndyCar needs Ryan Hunter-Reay to win the IndyCar Championship.

First off, when this season was announced to have twice as many road/street courses as ovals, many American fans disappeared or started screaming angrily, while purists of the sport of racing were excited. Those fans who stuck around, as well as those new fans arriving (thanks Rubens) were treated to amazing performances. However, anybody who had been around IndyCar the past two years knew that if Will Power couldn’t win the championship this year, then he probably never will. He’s by far the best road course racer in the series, and honestly is up there as one of the best in the world (My F1 man - Ryan Mooney - and I talk about this all the time…we want to see what Will can do in an F1 machine with the best equipment against the best competition there is). He’s had his chance, and took control early, but might be letting this one slip away. Hunter-Reay would be pulling off the huge upset to beat the road warrior in such a road-heavy schedule.

However, there is a bigger reason why IndyCar needs RHR to win the title: Nationality.

The last time an American won this American-hosted sport was in 2006 when Sam Hornish, Jr. won his third championship. He subsequently took his talents to NASCAR.  Prior to that, fellow Americans Greg Ray, Tony Stewart (also jumped his fat self to NASCAR), and co-champs of Buzz Calkins and Scott Sharp, had won the IndyCar Championship. The other champions? Kenny Brack (’98, Sweden), Scott Dixon (’03, ‘08, New Zealand), Tony Kanaan (’04, Brazil), Dan Wheldon (’05, England), Dario Franchitti (’07, ’09-’11, Scotland).  Only seven of the 26 full-time drivers are Americans, and other than Hunter-Reay, Graham Rahal is the only other one in the top ten in the points (10^th, 148 points behind first).

I hate to say it, but for this series to continue growing in excitement and popularity like it has been the past couple of years, it needs an American to hoist the trophy.

Sorry, Will. I love ya and I’m rootin’ for ya, but it might be better if you DON’T win….